Showing posts with label pence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pence. Show all posts

Wednesday, 22 February 2017

Feb 22, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets on positive note
EU to open higher
BoJ planning to be more transparent with announcing specific dates for bond buying operations (likely to avoid recent surprise moves)
Kuroda: ready to easy more


US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin-IMF Lagarde: IMF to evaluate FX levels and police FX policies
Fed Mester – at full employment, prices raising but don’t want to surprise the markets
US VP Pence delivered the marketing message of support for EU and NATO this weekend
But week earlier Chief Strategist Bannon had a different view
Spain is really firing at all cylinders with 2016 exports of EUR 255 bln from EUR 160 bln in 2009
Proof that the reforms they did earlier with weaker EUR work well for them

DAX to push higher behind 12 000 mark on strong data
US stocks with strong momentum but getting overvalued
Usually stocks grow with rising bond yields until 10 yr US Trys hit the levels around 3.9%
So there is still room but since US election we’ve got too high to fast

Daimler planning to build a plant near Moscow to produce Mercedes-Benz cars
It is a first major investment after announcing sanctions
Verizon agreed with Yahoo on lower takeover offer due to cyber attacks on Yahoo

EUR weakness not USD strength
Daily pivot: 1.0558
1st daily support: 1.0502
2nd daily support: 1.0468
3rd daily support: 1.0412
76.4% Fibo: 1.0455, the level 1.0450/60 next strong support range
Low from 1997 at 1.0416
Then the lows of 1.0340 only

Gold weakness seen more against EUR than USD
XAUEUR printing new highs

Brent crude getting tighter as we get closer to potential squeeze
As calendar spreads for upcoming expiries rose substantially
What in turn can make the storing of oil outside US a losing trade

10 yr US Trys yields lower on softer PMI data yesterday but erased the loses later on
Currently at 2.45%, still below important resistance at 2.51/52%
GE-FR spread hitting 78 bps again on Le Pen

Data

GE: Ifo Business Climate Survey – to confirm the overall strength of GE economy, no big surprises expected
US: Existing Home Sales – set to surprise on positive side

FOMC Minutes – markets still not taking the Mar 15 meeting seriously despite Yellen’s testimony from last week
Minutes can shed a bit more light on whether Fed is eyeing to raise rates in March

Fed Powell speaking today, as he is a possible successor of Yellen
It is worth to watch him as he may provide additional clues on March hike amid strong figures from US


Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Friday, 17 February 2017

Feb 17, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian stocks pausing
Samsung VP in custody over bribery, shares down only 1% as the company has good track record in coming back from troubles
Oil found support in talks about OPEC extending its production cut (now 6 month only)
ECB Minutes showing possibility of capital key adjustments what benefits peripherals a lot
French yields lower after seeing huge demand for 2028 bond issue yesterday


Trump at the end of his marketing cycle, starting campaigning again over the weekend
Ryan (speaker of the House of Representatives) having troubles to push tax reform to republicans
Trump at joint-session of Congress on Feb 28 presenting his agenda, looking at cutting corporate tax to 15% but Republicans resistant and open to 25% only as their fear of increasing the debt ceiling again what will have implications on US credit rating
No clear expectations of his agenda for now, either he disappoints or makes it

Allianz ready for buy backs worth of EUR 3 bln and adjusting budget for takeover activities
Deutsche Boerse – LSE acquisition process spiced up by allegation of DB CEO from insider trading
Snap IPO – owner of Snapchat to start investor roadshow on Monday, lowering target valuation of the company
Germany supports Peugeot-Citroen takeover of Opel/Vauxhall on no planned job cuts or factory closings

JP Morgan, BoAML, Citigroup proposing publicly to easy anti-money laundering rules as they are ineffective
Blackstone buying Cloudreach that is active in cloud computing business
OpenFin (financial software developer) raising USD 15 mln from JP Morgan, DRW Trading group (high-speed trading firm) and NEX Group (interdealer broker)

Saturday, US VP Mike Pence to reassure allies in Europe and polish the wording Trump is using towards NATO and Russia

Data

Feb 20 – EZ FinMin meeting on Greece
Feb 28 – Trump at Congress (US stock investors should get ready for a correction if Trump disappoints; on the other hand they are still likely to find a pro-growth solution)
Mar 15 – FOMC
Mar 17-18 – G10 FinMin and central bankers meeting (right after FOMC)
…the period between Fed 28-Mar 15 would be interesting as Trump believes in weaker USD


EURSEK – seems to be heavy after Riksbank not delivering

Waiting for CPI

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom