Apr 7, 2017 - US NFPs

US NFPs - official expectations:

Headline 180k exp vs 235k prior

Unemployment rate 4.7% exp vs 4.7% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.2% prior

Few comments apart from official numbers above:

A bit mixed views as employment was strong in ISM Manufacturing

While dropped substantially in ISM Non-manufacturing

ADP strong at 263k

Jobless claims steady

Our expectations are closer to 200-220k

Market putting more emphasis on the dynamic of hourly earnings grow because of inflation pressures

That in turn may benefit USD

With this respect would need to see earnings growth at a higher pace than +0.2% m/m or +2.8% y/y

Weather may play a role

Unlikely that a bad surprise would effect Fed rate hikes

Wouldn’t be surprised if stock markets finally take a note of hiking…

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

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