Friday, 7 April 2017

Apr 7, 2017 - US NFPs

US NFPs - official expectations:

Headline 180k exp vs 235k prior
Unemployment rate 4.7% exp vs 4.7% prior
Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.2% prior


Few comments apart from official numbers above:

A bit mixed views as employment was strong in ISM Manufacturing
While dropped substantially in ISM Non-manufacturing
ADP strong at 263k
Jobless claims steady

Our expectations are closer to 200-220k

Market putting more emphasis on the dynamic of hourly earnings grow because of inflation pressures
That in turn may benefit USD
With this respect would need to see earnings growth at a higher pace than +0.2% m/m or +2.8% y/y
Weather may play a role
Unlikely that a bad surprise would effect Fed rate hikes
Wouldn’t be surprised if stock markets finally take a note of hiking…


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



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