Apr 21, 2017 – French elections – timeline and EURUSD levels

I guess all of us are getting ready for Sunday/Monday night, so let’s have a look at certain times:

1800 GMT – First exit polls

1900 GMT – First projections based on votes counted

2000 GMT – Various estimates for 2^nd round when substantial part of the votes is counted

2100 GMT – Should have more clarity and if not, would need to wait until midnight when most of the votes are counted

Some Exit polls should be available from midday but in Belgium Swiss media only.

EURUSD levels in case of 1^st round results:

Macron-Fillon (Le Pen eliminated) - EUR may enjoy gapping up close to 1.1000 level and then, it is a sell…

…or wait for a rally towards 1.1000 if Sunday opens lower and then sell

Macron-Le Pen – widely expected outcome with some traders seeing EURUSD staying within 1.07/0800 range but we after initial volatility still see a relief rally towards 1.1000 on the back of 2^nd round expectations and then, again selling the rallies. Crucial to any surprise (especially to negative one) will be by what margin Macron will win over Le Pen as the market may get nervous in case of a close-close win.

Le Pen-Melenchon – let’s get ready for swift moves and sell any kind of bounce to target parity, 0.96/9400 and may be 0.9000, followed by a big buy after summer holidays. This scenario is  very unlikely but…we already have Brexit and Trump here.

In case of Le Pen surprising and winning the 1^st round, by what margin she wins will be important. In case of a close win, market will manage but a decisive win 30%+ vote can make many traders very nervous ahead of May 7 vote. Still in case Le Pen becoming a president, the French have a chance to block some of her policies via Legislative (Parliamentary) elections taking place on Jun 11 and Jun 18, 2017.

Next elections to watch are in Germany on Sep 24, 2017.

Followed by Italian elections not later than May 23, 2018 as the current parliamentary term expires on Mar 15, 2018.

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

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