Short recap
Asian in red as
stocks getting nervous, VIX above 10
Europe opening
lower
Cryptos
– SoKo preparing a trading ban, tax authorities cracking on some exchanges
China – halt
of Trys buying based on wrong info (I like it as some made a nice
money..)
US attacking NAFTA,
opting for more protectionism
While French Macron
signing nice contracts in China
Equities
Volatility
still remains low but that can change quickly
As markets may
get nervous at current record levels
Will get more
hints from Q4 earnings season kicking off
Earnings may be
irrelevant to some extent and investors will be more interested in discussing:
US effective
tax rates, CAPEX outlooks and buybacks/dividend payouts
…what about
positioning ourselves in cash, gold and bonds without any equity link in 2018?
Bayer
selling bigger stake in Covestro (EUR 1.5 bln) to hoard the cash
Intel
may go short on security issues against its competitors
Aramco
seeking cheap loans before IPO
Canada
speeding up Basel rules implementation
Likely this
year
PIMCO
may buys some US Trys on the recent weakness
Berkshire
Hathaway moving higher on Buffett’s succession moves
By adding Abel,
Jain to the board
SNB with
USD 55 bln profit in 2017 link
From its USD
800 bln holdings of US/EU stocks, bonds and gold
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.53% (printing high at
2.59% yesterday)
Surprisingly
staying above 2.50% level despite China denouncing halt of Trys purchases
10-yr Bund yield at 0.47%
Spikes in US
2-yr and 5 yr yields were translated yesterday into 10-yr Trys/Bunds as well
Chinese
slowdown or hald of Trys purchases and speculation about BoJ taper were the
main triggers
Investors look
at US inflation linked bonds as economic growth, rising oil and commodity
prices
Are likely to
spur inflation
BoJ
keeps bond buying unchanged despite news from yesterday
EURUSD
Resistance at
1.1962 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1994 (10 DMA), offers sitting above 1.2000
Support at
1.1915, 1.1831 (10/50 DMA)
Source: Saxo Bank
USDJPY
111.71 (200
DMA) may act as a support for correction higher
112.00 again in
sight but seller sitting here
Resistance at
111.89 (38.2% Fibo), 112.24 (100 DMA) and 112.37 (Ichimoku)
The potential
rally should fade here as well
JP investors
like US yields but unhappy with recent moves in JPY
Chinese Trys
plans and BoJ potential tapering as themes fade away
BoJ hates
volatility – likely to keep all under control as they proved with no change to
JGB buying today
Interesting to
see USDJPY not bouncing higher after China/BoJ today and higher Trys yields?
One may think
that further JPY strength is to come…
Support at
111.02 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.26 and 110.83 (short specs may bail out here)
And we can see
a dip to 110.14 (61.8% Fibo) with psychological 110.00 level next
Source: Saxo Bank
Gold
After
consolidation on rising yields higher
As the news
about China slowing down/halting Trys purchases and BoJ potential tapering
(resulting in stronger JPY/weaker USD) pushed gold higher
Still feels
support from stocks in red and rising physical demand from China
But need a
correction before moving higher again
Support at 1314
(10 DMA), then 1300 and 1290 (100 DMA)
Resistance at
1321 (23.6% Fibo)
Source: Saxo Bank
Data/events
Fed’s Dudley (2030
GMT)
Eurogroup
president speaking about future of EZ (1630 GMT)
Jan 19 – US fiscal
deadline
Jan 23-26 – Trump
in Davos
Jan 23 – BoJ – any
hints on potential taper?
Jan 25 - ECB
Jan 30 – US State
of the Union
Jan 31 – FOMC
Feb 5 – Powell as
Fed Chair
Feb 16 – Chinese
New Year
Should you have any questions feel free to contact us anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This
material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of
Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market
environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way
at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any
potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone
would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved
©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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