May 23, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Europe opening higher

GBP volatile on Manchester bomb attack

Merkel’s comments about weak EUR were more preparation ahead of today’s visit of Trump

As well as preparation for Sep elections as Germans like strong EUR (DEM) while don’t mind to kick a bit ECB

Trump acting as a mediator Muslim states, Israel and Iran

Trump’s budget – to cut gov spending like healthcare and social programs (USD 3.6 trln over 10 yrs)

Trump still caught in Russian scandal

Russian cyber attacks via Android targeted banks

Equities

Boeing taking on Bombardier on experience from Airbus

Swiss watch makers facing declines in sales

Noble down 28%, halted, downgrade and facing bankruptcy

M&As hitting new highs between US and EU companies

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.23%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37%

Greek debt relief not yet but likely going to July payment on IMF request

Would face German pre-election opposition

Greek 2-yr yield to 5.25% from around 9.50% in Feb

DXY staying very weak

EURUSD

Yesterday’s/overnight move higher likely coming from new demand and short covering, Merkel and more bullish view of EZ assets

Overall EURUSD is well overdone

Critical 1.1300 may attract speculators

But EURUSD may even check the levels like 1.1314 (76.4% Fibo of May 2016-Jan 2017 move)

USDJPY

Not much volatility overnight after initial JPY strength on Manchester attack

Bids seem sitting below 111.00

Offers may be about 111.35

55 DMA at 111.34 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as resistance

Gold daily

Resitance 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Support 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Crude oil

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting on Thursday

9-month cut extension already priced in

Trump’s proposal to sell half of strategic reserves (344 mln barrels)

What would add daily 100k barrels of new oil over the next 10 years

Upcoming

Last day of Eurogroup meeting

Fed’s Kashkari speaking (1300 GMT)

Hammond, Schauble, Guindos speaking (1430 GMT)

ECB’ Coeure speaking (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Harker speaking (2100 GMT)

Wed – FOMC Minutes

Thu – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Fri – G7 meeting

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (rescheduled)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

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