Last
week equity markets rallied on Trump’s tax promises and oil prices jumped on
IEA Monthly Report as OPEC members cut production in January more or less as
agreed. Therefore the OPEC report on Monday will likely have only minor impact
unless reveals some important details. The first half of the week will be about
GDPs from Japan, German and EZ as well as about inflation from China, UK and US.
On Thursday and Friday we have the first bunch of US housing market figures.
During the week some Fed speakers will also take the stage but the most
important will be Yellen’s testimonies. Investors are also following the events in
Washington as analysts are more and more concerned about the ability of Trumps
team to push his reforms through.
Monday
Well we
will start already late Sunday with Japanese quarterly GDP which is expected to
rise 0.3% in Q4. With no specific date and time this week should be
released the Chinese FDIs for January along with New Loans and M2 Money Supply. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market report is also scheduled for Monday, but as mentioend probably with limited impact unless surprising details will be released. Also the German central banks BUBA monthly report will be released at GMT
11:00. The report can cause some volatility in EUR crosses if it would support
the rumours about a potential ECB tapering this year.
Tuesday
It will
be busiest day of the week. After midnight we have Chinese inflation which expect
higher again. Especially the PPI is accelerating in the recent months that will
potentially help to boost inflation in Europe and US, however the Yuan needs to
stay stable. In the European morning the preliminary German GDP may add some
volatility. On 12th January the Federal Statistics Office already projected growth rate for Q4
at 0.5% and for full year 2016 at 1.9% both better than analysts’ expectations.
However the first firm data for Q4 will be released now and it still needs to
confirm the January estimate. Three hours later the EZ GDP will be released (with
ZEW Eco Sentiment) and no change in the pace of growth is expected. The UK CPI is
accelerating quite rapidly and it doesn’t show any sign of cooling down and
analysts expect another increase. This may force the BoE to start to think more
hawkish even the current account is still close to record deficit. In the
afternoon US PPI will have moderate impact as the market will be waiting for
Yellen’s semi-annual Monetary Policy testimony before the Senate Banking
Committee. Don‘t forget the API oil stocks in the evening even after the OPEC
report could have less importance.
Wednesday
The UK Office of National Statistics will release the Labour Market Economic
commentary with avg. Earnings, jobless claims and unemployment rate and minimum
or no change is forecasted by the analytics. And that‘s all for the European morning
so far while the afternoon will be busy in the US. After lunch time the US CPI, Retails
Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released. Little later we have US Capacity Utilisation Rate (something closely followed by Fed) and Industrial
Production. Janet Yellen will continue
his semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. EIA
Weekly Crude Inventories will be the last important data of the day, however as
API, probably less important after the Monday OPEC report.
Thursday
Australia
will be in focus after midnight as the Labour Force stats will be released. The
unemployment rate started to rise recently which was kind of a surprise
for the market and definitely not a good sign. However with the increasing
industrial metal prices and recovery in mining sector this uptick could be
temporary. Let’s see. At lunchtime we
have the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, which could shed some light on
the future policy direction, especially with the rumours about the possible
tapering this year. US housing will be
in focus in the afternoon. The Building Permits are expected to decline while the
number of Housing Starts should increase slightly. Both annualized numbers are more
or less stable around 50% of the pre-crisis levels. The deregulation promised
by Trump should help to boost also the housing sector, but the question is if
it‘s really needed ... to create another housing bubble. The Mortgage Bankers
Association should publish the percentage of Mortgages that are one or more payments
late. US Mortgage delinquencies is a very important indicator of the health
of the housing market and we don’t have the exact date and time of release. The
indicator is declining since 2010 and the number reported in November is lower
than it was during 2007 when the problems in the housing market started to
materialize. In the evening the New Zealand retail sales are due and it will be
watched closely after the last week’s dovish RBNZ statement.
Friday
The last
day of the week will be a quiet one. We have EZ Current account in the morning which expanded
much more than market expected in November. For December a slightly lower
number is forecasted. Later the UK retail sales will be released and after last
month surprise drop now positive number is expected btw 1-1.2%. In the
afternoon CAD traders may experience some volatility as Domestic Security
Purchases by foreigners will be released by Statistics Canada. The last figure of the week will be
the CB leading index which is a combination of 10 economic indicators, will
be published and no change is expected. As most of the indicators are known
already, no major impact is expected.
Good Luck
and remember to watch your risk and be consistent
Mr. Tech Man
DISCLAIMER:
This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the
Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market
environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way
at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any
potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone
would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved
©2016.
Contact:
landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com
Posts
0 comments:
Post a Comment