Feb 20, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

US markets closed on Monday on account of President’s Day (not to get confused with Trump, reference is to George Washington birthday)  :o)

CA markets closed as well on account of Family Day

DXY not reacting to Mar 15 hike increased likelihood (40%)

Fed likes to see the probability of rate hike above 75% to act

Will see whether Fed officials will be convincing enough to increase the probability before Mar 15

Kraft Heinz buying Unilever for USD 143 bln is off

US shale oil producers facing a rising costs (first time after couple of years)

Battle for German drug producer Stada keeps heating up with the latest Bain Capital acquisition proposal for USD 3.8 bln. The shares trading at new historic highs below EUR 58.

DAX likely to test 12 000 as strong underlying momentum continues

EURUSD – jumped from 1.0530 (61.8% Fibo) but range trading

Markets like to see the cross below 1.0700, pressured by political risks as well

1.0500/25 key for further testing below 1.0350

Lower Bund yields can be seen as risk off in EZ

10 yr Trys yields struggling to break 2.50% level, will see how market will react to hawkish comments from Fed officials

USDJPY – support around 112.50 + 23.6% Fibo + support in the form of descending trend line connecting high of Jan 3 & Jan 27

Then lows around 111.60

XAUUSD – still range bound 1220 (38.2% Fibo) and 1245/1250 (50% Fibo)

Data

UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey – hard to say after Dec negative surprise but Brexit impact is more and more visible

EZ: Consumer Confidence Indicator – expected to stay steady but upcoming elections in EZ could weigh on sentiment

EZ FinMin meeting today, no resolution expected on Greece

Feb 28 – Trump before Congress, is he going to disappoint?

Putin supporting the EZ or EU collapse? Not really...

Putin is definitely not interested in collapse of EZ

36% of Russian foreign currency reserves are in EUR (USD 48%)

Russian businessmen invested heavily in EU

EU is the largest trading partner for Russia with exports worth of almost USD 100 bln to EZ, what equals to exports to the rest of the world

Foreign direct investments to Russia from EZ total 70% of all FDI flowing to Russia

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

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