Aug 1, 2017 - Market Update (Can Trump hit rock bottom? Weidmann – EZ needs a reform, Chinese Anbang Insurance Group to sell overseas assets & bring cash home, Europe experiencing the strongest earnings season since 2017, EURUSD above 1.1785 (200 WMA))

Short recap

Asia slightly up

Europe opening higher

Can Trump hit rock bottom?      

Trump looking at executive action on healthcare

North Korea can hit most of US

ECB’s Weidmann – EZ needs a reform

Oil popped over USD 50 on high fuel demand and HF short covering

While supply still high

Equities

Shell putting a financial hand in solar firm Sunseap Group

BNP Paribas interested in Strutt & Parker

Brexit to increase the needs for capital by 30% and costs by 4% for banks

Trump taking on insurers after Obamacare repeal vote failed again

LabCorp eyeing Chiltern (USD 1.2 bln) to expand oncology activities

Tesla down on “manufacturing hell” as Elon Musk commented the production of Model 3

That may last 6 months until the cash burn ends and company will start to make profits

China asked Anbang Insurance Group (huge insurer) to sell its overseas assets and bring cash home

A sign of troubles coming… More here & here

Earnings

Europe experiencing the strongest earnings season since 2017 with EBITDA at record highs

US doing well too witnessing sales and EPS acceleration

Apple – market is expecting an increase in revenue on the back of higher sales of its smartphones while checking also on a new release if iPhone that may be delayed until Oct

Pfizer – to report higher earnings supported by breast cancer treatment sales. The drag on earnings might be (as of other peers too, the patent expirations)

FireEye, Devon Energy, Under Armour

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% vs 2.28% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.54% vs 0.54% yesterday

EURUSD

Broad weakness pushed EURUSD higher

Higher EZ inflation making market believe in a hawkish ECB

But looking at Fed not hiking this year again

Support 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1785 (200 WMA) – checking what’s going on there

Resistance 1.1200 more psychological of nature

USDJPY

Heavy on USD weakness

Bids at 110.00 (around option barrier)

Also some options (USD 1 bln) expiring around this level

Speculators may be hunting stops below 110.00

Resistance 110.97 (61.8% Fibo)

Support 110.14 (76.4% Fibo)

Data/events

Wed

Fed’s Mester (1600 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1930 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs – 173k exp

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

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