Mar 9, 2017- Forex Market Makers, PA, Supply and Demand ( Video Live Trading Room Edu - Mar 2, 2017)

Hi All,
as usual, looking for intraday setups, a little bit different way of thinking...
Building trading plan, preparing for both ways and of course has educational purpose only!

Please check below how we did last time, was it profitable again ? :)

Join Us and check how and what we are doing

FREE LIVE TRADING ROOM - click here

Please don't hesitate to contact Us should you have additional questions.
We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading
Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Mar 9, 2017 - (Chart of the Day) Pre - ECB EurUsd, EurGbp, EurCad

Hi,
it's again "Super Mario" day as ECB will decide about Minimum Bid Rate. We can try to guess if he is going to be more dovish or less hawkish.

The most important thing for you as a Trader, is that you CAN'T put yourself into position that opposite  move ( to your guess ) will froze you for good. You have to have posibilty to react. think about that.

EURUSD daily chart:

I used that chart few days ago on Twitter, do your homework ;)

EURGBP daily and 30 min charts:

if the current move is real you dont want to see it moves below certain levels ( if you think it's stop run opposite is true):

EURCAD daily and 30 min charts:

similar as EURGBP above

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Mar 9, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

China PPI higher, CPI lower

Novo Nordisk bidding for Global Blood Therapeutics

Akzo Nobel considering a merger or sale, now in talks with PPG Industries

Suez acquiring GE Water (EUR 3.2 bln)

AIG to relocate HQ for EU market to Luxembourg due to Brexit

Senior level positions as well, but no details yet

Technology companies to prepare fixes in the light of CIA spying revelations

But how deep their pocket is or how truly willing are they?

Trump in a search for money for infrastructural projects

Meeting with private real estate developers and business people (Elon Musk as well)

Brexit – 2^nd Scottish independence referendum may take place in the fall next year

No final decision yet

Oil dropped on further US inventories build up due to rising imports

Especially from Saudi Arabia, a warning shot for OPEC deal

Overall risk reduction across commodity sector after recent extreme speculative position building

Development in energy may be a leading signal for stocks

Data

US: Job Cut Report – expecting further slowdown in layoffs

ECB – Draghi doesn’t want say or do anything (that’s the message at this point)

Ahead of elections in NL and FR despite political risks fading

Expecting just some verbal tweaks on QE, bond buying, may be touching maturities

Markets to search for any hints on rising prices, better macro data and future of QE

No major change expected despite Buba seeing world differently

Will be difficult for Draghi to say nothing but let’s see…

EURUSD – overall dovish view hasn’t changed

If markets take Draghi’s comments from hawkish side

We may see spike on higher bond yields across EZ

Yield rise likely disproportionate what in turn will be negative for EUR

EURUSD daily levels:

3^rd res 1.0605

2^nd res 1.0589

1^st res 1.0565

Pivot 1.0550

1^st sup 1.0526

2^nd sup 1.0510

3^rd sup 1.0486

USDJPY daily levels:

3^rd res 116.03

2^nd res 115.39

1^st res 114.88

Pivot 114.24

1^st sup 113.73

2^nd sup 113.09

3^rd sup 112.58

Fri:

US NFPs – headline figure, unemployment rate not that important

Earnings is the number to look at if no bad surprise in headline

All is about Average hourly earnings after January drop

Important for future rate hikes pace

Market pricing June hike at 52%

DXY not reflecting fully positive US macro data

10-yr US Trys at 2.57% on the way to break 2.60%

From technical perspective closing above 2.55% will open further door higher towards 2.80% potentially towards 3.00%

Bill Gross on breaching 2.60%: “This will signal the start of a bear market, should it hold on a weekly basis”

Source: Reuters

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 8, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian stocks already taking profits and positioning ahead of FOMC next week

EU opening lower

Obamacare replacement will not be as smooth Trump would hope for

Oil under pressure from expected rise in US inventories (market still oversupplied and US production rising)

Gold through 1220, staying above 1210 (50/100 DMA) needed to be on bullish side

Getting support from risk but Fed hike, rising USD and yields represent headwinds

Caution ahead of NFPs and FOMC

US stocks in a search for new (after Trump trade) inspiration

Favoring more Europe after political risks off the table

S&P 500 key support short term at 2350

Get ready for huge changes in auto industry driven by introduction of green cars, car sharing and automated driving. More M&A coming?

Volkswagen positive on group 2017 outlook

Latest hit over selling US technology to North Korea or Iran of USD 892 mln was taken by Chinese ZTE as result of settlement with US

HP eyeing Nimble Storage in a data storage hunt (USD 1.09 bln)

Snap lower on short sellers stepping in

Good at cleaning the oil wells? Province of Alberta to get funding from Canadian budget to clean up after bankrupt producers.

Citibank including Chinese bonds to its indices

Forex

Nothing overwhelming should happen today as market is waiting for ECB, NFPs and FOMC for inspiration and further direction

GBP – unless UK Prime Minister May will try to override her second defeat from Lords yesterday (Brexit bill)

Key level 1.2000

EURCHF – reacting to political risks in EU, already moving going to ECB

EURUSD – 1m implied vols printing new lows since 2014

Market looking for a trigger

Fed hike is fully priced

But only hike is priced in, nothing else…

Yesterday ECB published details of bond buying program

Saw a significant shift over to shorter durations in bonds it buys

Bunds Feb duration to 4.3 years from 9.4 years in Jan

Data

GE: Industrial production to edge higher after 7.4% drop in Jan

US: ADP Employment expected up to 190k but lower than previous. Market curious about productivity growth (same for NFPs).

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 7, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher

EU markets mixed open

US deploying anti-missiles battery in South Korea

North Korea was likely targeting US bases in Japan yesterday

Markets finding Trump still loosing focus from economic topics, main message from US stock yesterday

Brexit – new debate about Brexit bill at 1100 GMT

Deutsche Bank CEO backing the EUR 8 bln shares offering

Shares may continue on negative starting today

Intesa SanPaolo selling stake in Allfunds (EUR 800 mln) to realize capital gain

Likely to have a positive spin over effect on other EU financials

PSA Group - Opel-Vauxhall deal worth of EUR 2.2 bln to challenge Volkswagen

Another round of consolidation and search for cost savings with Standard Life buying Aberdeen Asset Management (GBP 11 bln)

Real estate business is interesting as we still have very low interest rates what makes building and renovating attractive

TG Therapeutics up on leukemia drugs combination doing well in a study

Cameco (a uranium producer) looking at selling mines in US on a couple of years industry decline

Nobody expressed interest in buying Trump tower in Toronto as a part of debt holder claim sale

HFs eyeing bank stocks again after years of negative no interest

Gold – support at 1220 (Fibo 38.2%) and 1210 (50/100 DMA)

EURUSD 

Staying bearish short term

If you are bullish there is no advantage of buying in now

It may still move higher but we have ECB and NFPs this week

All can be again about 1.0500/15 range as last week

HFs back to USD longs on Fed hike

Having hike fully priced in their positioning

But please remember that Fed officials were preparing us for a rate hike cycle (3 hikes this year) and not for March hike as such

If all goes well they will hike three times and (may be) one hike can be even higher than 25 bps

A serious shift in ECB policy unlikely before Jan 2018

But may see the change in capital key what in turn would boost peripheral bonds

Base range levels: 1.0500 and 1.0800/50

1.0625/50 important on the way higher today

No major support until 1.0250

BONDS

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.34%

10-yr US Trys yield at 2.50% - still in a wait and see mode despite stock markets rallying and market expecting growth acceleration

A break of 2.60% would endorse the change

Data

EZ: Q4 GDP to stay steady at 0.4%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red on Fed rate hike prospects and slowing China

China working on reforms to reign in the debt load, put in place measures to contain future financial crisis and shift the export lead to consumer oriented economy

North Korea playing with fire again

German Private banking association don’t see the need for ultra-loose policy from ECB anymore

Oil lower on Russia production cut compliance

Trump verbally dumping MXN lower but is it really what he wants?

Weaker MXN means Mexico more competitive

Gold – net longs up 48% hitting 3-month high (COT)

Deutsche Bank selling EUR 8 bln of shares and stake in Asset management business

Need to strengthen position and increase the capital ratios

If sold at EUR 11.65 per share would bring the CET1 to 14.1%

A small surprised in dividend of EUR 0.19 while market not expecting anything

Peugeot-Citroen helped GM to exit from Europe by buying Opel-Vauxhall

OMV buying a share in Russian gas field (EUR 1.75 bln)

Yellen’s speech on Friday:

“A rate increase at next meeting "would likely be appropriate" if Fed determines that data on employment and inflation are continuing to move in line with expectations.”

Well a magic word “if”…

EURUSD and USDJPY – back to square one

Pace of rate hikes not expected to changed on Mar 15 even if Friday’s NFPs are strong

That’s why USD reaction on Fischer and Yellen muted

Do we really have more USD strength in store?

COT report – cutting USD long posit

EURUSD daily levels:

3^rd res 1.0789

2^nd res 1.0706

1^st res 1.0664

Pivot 1.0581

1^st sup 1.0539

2^nd sup 1.0456

3^rd sup 1.0414

USDJPY daily levels:

3^rd res 115.47

2^nd res 115.11

1^st res 114.53

Pivot 114.17

1^st sup 113.60

2^nd sup 113.23

3^rd sup 112.66

FX OPTIONS

EURUSD - Saw a massive selloff in the middle and longer end of the curve on Friday due to:

Le Pen losing ground, risk on in stocks, spot higher from 1.0500 despite Fed speakers and US data, and March hike already priced in

1w covering ECB and NFPs at 7.5 vol, what is the spot range of 110 pips

3m ATM down 0.9 vol to 9.35 level (3m covering FR elections)

BONDS – A heads up…

10 yr Trys yield at 2.47%

10 yr Bunds yield at 0.35%

A bit of divergence (more than 200 bps) between 10 yr Trys and Bunds

Is the market really reflecting the reality of rise in price and economy growth in EZ that way?

More reasonable level for Bunds yield would be around 1% than 0.35% now

Just imagine the shift if it materializes

ECB – QE and wording on inflation/growth crucial

As the political risks in EZ are fading away (Le Pen)

Data

The whole week will be about the below. Today we have EU Summit but no major headlines expected.

Thu:

ECB – expecting just some verbal tweaks on QE, bond buying, may be reshuffle of maturities…etc.

Markets will be searching for any hints on change in the position on rise in prices and growth

No major change expected despite Buba seeing world differently

Fri:

US NFPs – headline figure, unemployment rate and Average hourly earnings will be watched

Earnings is the number to look at if no bad surprise in headline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 6, 2017 - Live Market Coverage: Europe open

Hi,

Please find below possible demand and supply zones based on 30 min charts with short comments and bias. DON'T TRADE them blindly, additional analysis is needed ! Follow Us on Twitter for further updates.

Join Us and check how we are trading these levels

FREE LIVE TRADING ROOM - click here

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Mar 5, 2017 - (Weekly Tech Overview) EURUSD - is it time for bears to decide ? Warning signs

Hi,
ECB ( super Mario ) and NFP  this weeek, hopefully mkt will create trading opportunities and not decide to wait till 15th March LOL.
We may try to joke around but EURUSD weekly chart is showing that bears should take it seriously with another warning sign I think it's time to decide: All in or it's time to get back to defensive            ( check our Dollar Index  Chart of the Day here ).

Join Us and check how and what we are doing

FREE LIVE TRADING ROOM - click here

As usual charts are better than 1000 words, enjoy:

EURUSD Weekly charts below:

Please don't hesitate to contact Us should you have additional questions.
We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading
Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Mar 3, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red

EU opening lower

Smaller companies in UK getting ready for Brexit as they keep cash and reduce investments  

Peugeot-Opel deal may be announced in a couple of days

Henkel bidding for Darex Packaging (USD 1.05 bln)

Alcoa consolidating internally

FX brokers tempted by US market on upcoming financial deregulations

Snap up 41% first day on NYSE in most prominent tech IPO since Alibaba

May be reminding us 1999-2000 year with techs flying high, CBs supporting markets with cheap money

Kind of scenario when the last 1-2 years of bull market are very strong

US stocks valuation overstretched

But looking at Europe can be an option, especially if political risks are off the table

Gold consolidating, support at 1220

Silver dropped 4%, support at 17.38/17.73

US 10 yr Trys yield at 2.47%

Very busy day for Fed’s officials as they have last chance to tweak the market about March hike (now priced at 90%):

Evans, Lacker (1515 GMT)

Powell (1715 GMT)

Fischer (1730 GMT)

Yellen (1800 GMT)

If Fed hikes in March, the wording about potential acceleration of hikes will be crucial for the market

EUR – political risks in EZ vs better incoming data, risk of taper from ECB

USD – Trump stimulus policies, hikes

EURUSD – no change, overall market is positioned neutral in EUR

Res 1.0526 (61.8% Fibo)

Sup range 1.0500/20

Sup 1.0453-61

Sup 1.0340

Closing below 1.0460 important for big players as bears worked well the whole week. EUR may get stronger but against CHF, JPY, AUD…etc.

The risk are Fed speakers, if we do not manage to close below 1.0460/80 range (as something may be cooking around) the caution next week is warranted (ECB, US NFPs).

Reuters poll:

EURUSD at 1.0400 in 6m, 1.0300 in 12m

Trump not clear on USD

EURUSD options

Seen realized vols trading lower

1w Implied much higher at 9 than Realized at 4

1w expiry is covering Yellen tonight and US NFPs next Friday

RRs keep strongly favoring puts as we are sitting close to 2017 low of 1.0340

FR elections – despite recent opinion polls the expiries covering 2^nd round of vote on May 7 still trading at high end of volatility curve

Data

Fri:

EZ: Retail sales to print higher but trending lower

US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no change

US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10

Next Friday:

US: NFPs

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 2, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia printed new highs after open

EU opened lower

Trump having financial difficulties with building Mexican wall

Fed speakers massaging the market with hawkish comments to get ready for potential Mar 15 hike

Last one was Brainard who turned hawkish from dovish making the March hike priced at 70% (a level Fed is comfortable to move)

After yesterday’s PCE important Yellen and Fisher on Friday and US NFPs next Friday

If all goes hawkish the March hike is a done deal

Potential risk is development around Dutch and French elections

EURUSD can soon visit the 1.0400/1.0350 levels

USDJPY 117.00

China recently announced measures to open FX derivatives market for bond investors for hedging purposes

But foreigners seem to be very cautious due to capital controls still being in place

Oil under pressure from record inventories in US

Stocks in a strong bull market, caution warranted

Snap Inc (owner of Snapchat) completed IPO raising USD 3.4 bln

Bit of question marks around whether the company will make it as a Facebook did or will follow the dead end road as Twitter does

As it faces the usual social media challenge of converting the popularity into cash

Apple – another patent case against the company was dismissed by US judge

Bunds relaxed their safe heaven status and trade below 165 with yield 0.29%

10 yr Bund yield at 0.29%

10 yr US Trys yield at 2.45% (range of 2.30-2.52%)

EZ core bonds face headwinds from positive outcome of EZ election

And potential ECB tapering. Please bear in mind that tapering is expected to impact EZ core bonds only, spiking their yields.

Corporates do well, spreads with cores contracting

Enjoying equity rally, strong buying on positive developments

EM bonds doing well as well despite Fed hike last year and upcoming hikes this year

Still see strong buying flows

Data

Thu:

EZ: Unemployment – no change expected

EZ: CPI Estimate – to move to 2% (highest since 2013)

US: Initial Jobless Claims – to remain stable at low levels

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri:

US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no change

US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10

Fed’s Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell, Fisher speaking

Next Friday:

US: NFPs

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 1, 2017 - Forex (Chart of the day) USD Update

Hi,

please find below daily dollar index chart, all comments on the chart ( at the same time EURUSD is testing potentialy strong demand and USDJPY potentialy strong supply zones ):

USD Index Daily:

Join Us and check how and what we are doing

FREE LIVE TRADING ROOM - click here

Please don't hesitate to contact Us should you have additional questions.
We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading
Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Mar 1, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

JP higher on weaker JPY, rest of Asia mixed

EU opened higher

US indices didn’t keep the gains on Trump disappointment as he was short of details about his plans on tax overhaul and infrastructure

Open to immigration reform deviating from campaign rhetoric

Top US and CN officials discussed trade and economy

US growth slowed a bit but consumer spending strong

US PCE, next week NFPs and few Fed speakers left – crucial for March hike

Brexit – banks will have 12-18 months for transition

Will see how it goes as they push for 5 year period

Fiat Chrysler facing diesel emissions allegations on some models

Volkswagen paid USD 2.9 bln to buy back 138k diesel cars in US

EU Commission more flexible on changes in Telecom sector

Apple doing marketing with USD 50 bln paid last year to US based suppliers (like 3M, Corning…etc.)

Stocks trading at record highs on new iPhone expectations

Salesforce.com revenue up 27%

Opel-Peugeot – GM searching for opportunities, not mentioning sale of Opel

TransCanada withdrew its legal case against US over stopping Keystone XL (USD 15 bln)

Valeant looking at further revenue decline in 2017 amid competition. The company is still struggling under enormous debt burden, likely the sales of non-core assets may not be sufficient.

US banks with record profits last year

Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab lowering trade commissions to zero

Another war in brokerage field boiling?

10 yr US Trys yield at 2.42%

10 yr Bund yield at 0.21%

USD supported by rising Mar 15 hike expectations not the Trump talk

Now at 78% above 70-75% for Fed to move

Other sources say 65/70%

Fed Williams March hike “up for serious consideration”

Room to go: 

DXY towards 102.00/12 (high from Nov)

10 yr US Trys yield towards 2.52% (range 2.30/2.52%)

If DXY moves higher, stocks should have the room too

Fed hike can be further catalysator

Will see whether further US data and remaining Fed speakers will seal the deal

EURUSD – as mentioned before the 1.0500-20 level a battleground

USDJPY – 115.00 and Ichimoku ahead of us

Data

Wed:

UK: Manufacturing PMI – expected slightly higher (close to three year high)

US: PCE inflation expected at 1.7%, hitting of 1.8% or above will be a strong signal for Fed to move in March

US: Consumer spending – expecting 0.3% increase

US: Personal income – expecting 0.3% higher

ISM Manufacturing – expecting no change

Fed’s Kaplan, Brainard speaking

Beige Book

Thu:

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri:

US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no change

US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10

Fed’s Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell, Fisher speaking

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime. 

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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