June 14, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

The Russian dust around Trump is settling down

And we go back to work to crunch through hard data and policy execution

Softer Brexit talk and EU is opening the door for UK to stay

Equities

Renault-Nissan surprised investors with specially created vehicle for undisclosed bonuses for top management

A shadow of unclarity surrounding Banco Popular fall down

Verizon-Yahoo deal done, Mayer is a history

GM taking it seriously about electric autonomy cars

Apple issuing USD 1 bln of special bonds in a support of green projects

As Trump backs away from Paris climate agreement

…a nice action with a bit of branding building

Postponed US banking reform to postpone global initiatives

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.20%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

DXY

Markets have experienced recently some USD buying from leverage names against EUR and CHF

While selling from real money going to FOMC

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo), 96.90 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

What’s next? 1.0500 again or 1.1500?

Resistance at 1.1231 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1200, 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Critical resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1275 (10 DMA), 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1261 (50 DMA), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo and 100 DMA) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

Upcoming Data/Events

IMF’s Lagarde speaking

ECB’s Weidmann speaking

ECB’s Constancio speaking (0815 GMT)

FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference) in the light of inflation development

Economic projections to be released

As well as details on balance sheet reduction (USD 4.5 trln) are expected

…all of that in the light of today’s US CPI release

Do not forget that US economy usually doing better in H2

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 13, 2017 - (Trade Idea) Short GBPUSD - medium/long term, targeting new low

Hi,

 Right after UK CPI I mentioned on Twitter I took small, short position ( risking 0,15% ).

 What is my thinking ( come on great UK CPI number , why the heck you are short ? ):
 1. Highest UK CPI Since June 2013 would be great for GBP with „normal” economic growth. The thing is that we have high inflation based on weak pound and not because of the economic growth.

 2. There wont be „soft” Brexit In my opinion .

 3. Daily chart/ one of the strategy could support that view:

 4. FOMC and Yellen - dovish hike is priced in, looking for stronger dollar in a months ahead

 I gone short @1,2707 with stop 30pips above pre UK election high targeting…. Well something around 1,15/1,13 ( risking 0,15% for now ). Im ready to reopen that short ( under current mkt conditions In case of stop put risking 0,3% )

The another way could be GBPUSD PUT option expiry In late November with strike price In half way of target , for ex ample:

Please don't hesitate to contact Us should you have additional questions.
We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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June 13, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

EU not happy with lack of clarity on UK side

Working on moving trading and clearing of EUR denominated assets out of UK

Basics of financial reform in US unveiled

Equities

US techs heavy yesterday but got some bids at the end of session

Is a 4% correction enough?

Material stocks can be back in vogue on copper break…

Hong Kong listed stocks trade at 30% discount to US peers

While offering attractive yields

Risk is China data

GE to review its business activities as the new CEO comes in

Bit of financial world…UK financials keep moving staff out of UK despite softer Brexit talk

LSE expecting profit growth to be driven by indices and clearing

Allied Irish Banks to sell 25% stake to rise EUR 3.3 bln

US banks launching their own payment app to compete with peer-to-peer Venmo

Honeywell to spin off profitable aerospace

Slovakian ESET and US Dragos warn of a malware that can attack critical infrastructure

That was behind last year’s Ukraine power blackout link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.21%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%

BoJ slowed down bond buying as the rising yields stabilized

As the US Trys yields have fallen

DXY

Nothing new from yesterday…

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Seems soft ahead of FOMC

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1232 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

US yields lending some support

Lots of offers above 110.00, more above 110.50

Large options with strike 110.00 expiring today

Crucial resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.54 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1275 (10 DMA), 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1261 (50 DMA), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo and 100 DMA) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

Upcoming Data/Events

GE: Schaeuble speaking

ECB’s Weidmann speaking

ECB’s Lautenschlager 1000 GMT

Tue/Wed – FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference)

Economic projections to be released

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 12, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower taking clues from Nasdaq and its heavy weights

Europe opening lower

FR parliamentary elections – Macron’s party winning a huge majority in Lower House

What will make the reform package likely to happen

Traditional parties dying , Le Pen heavily down

China opening to foreign investors more, to cut restrictions on FDI

While reports of falsified provincial economic data

Fitch, Moody’s, S&P – no changes in UK rating but keep negative outlook

GBP waiting for clues

All points to softer Brexit as May’s coalition partner doesn’t want to have a border controls and customs union with Ireland

UK employers not really prepared for possible immigration changes

Equities

Apple – new iPhone may be lagging the download speed against its rivals

Elliott Advisors increasing the share in Akzo Nobel to 5%, becoming the largest shareholder

SoftBank entering the field of robotics by buying the business from Alphabet

EU to investigate Qualcomm-NXP (USD 38 bln)

NASDAQ sold off, driven by Apple (iPhone upgrade issue) and NVIDIA (casino stock label)

Investors may be caught by surprise as the volatility in techs is extremely low

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.22%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%

DXY

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1231 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

Lots of options expiring today within the range of 1.11-1.1200

So the trading should be contained here as we wait for FOMC

COT report – speculative longs in EUR increased by 1k to 74k, largest long positioning since 2007

USDJPY

Yields to lead the game ahead/after FOMC

Crucial resistance at 110.50 (200 DMA and 61.8% Fibo)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

COT report - saw long liquidation ahead of FOMC

Upcoming Data/Events

Tue – US Attorney General to testify before Congress over Comey and meeting with Russians

Tue/Wed – FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference)

Economic projections to be released

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 11, 2017 - Weekly Commodity: Oil resistant to turmoil around Qatar, Corn on rollercoaster bull and Sugar in consolidation

According to the Bloomberg Commodity Index, commodities bounced back on Friday from lows seen in May after rollercoaster week. The biggest winners are corn and cocoa, were traders focused on weather concerns. Also copper had a good week on technical buying and escalated turmoil in the world’s second biggest copper mine in Indonesia. On the other side it was a bad week for precious metals and crude oil. The later fell after a very disappointing EIA Weekly petroleum report were crude and gasoline inventories increased massively compared to an expected drop.

Crude oil

The oil market had a turbulent week after the production cut extension agreed by OPEC  and Russia didn’t convince the market that it will be enough to bring balance back to the market. This week the pressure on oil bulls increased after the EIA crude inventories were released as instead an expected drop by 3mil barrels they increased by 3.3mil barrels. Moreover fuel stocks also increased by 4.4 mil barrels signalling there is more than enough supply for the upcoming US driving season. The market is driven by a very negative sentiment and if there is even some bullish news, traders are ignoring them. The light at the end of the tunnel is the developing political crisis in the Middle East involving Qatar as the risk of this tension is not priced in at all. The main thing here is that it cause supply disruption in case of war but also this could put the OPEC production cut in jeopardy.

Technically there are two scenarios therefore it's a risky situation. The market is retesting currently the 61.8% level of the rally from last August until January (in case of uptrend the 3rd wave on the chart). Until the 45 dollar level holds, the direction where we look should be the upside. On the other hand the uptrendline is broken and if the $45 is broken we can sea a bearmerket with next support at $40. The question here is how long it will take for the crude to take off from the $45-50 range if ... (next spring could be goal for Russia and Saudi Arabia to lift prices / more here) and how many times will the bears try to test the support at $45 level. At this stage I would definitely not throw away longs if I have them and would be cautious with any stops as these will be possibly hunted below $45. Focus on weekly close.

Corn

After a volatile week in Corn market it seems that hedge funds are losing their nerves. According to CFTC COT report Money managers closed out 38k shorts to 373k contracts. On the other hand they also increased longs significantly by 32k lots in the week ending on 6th June (last Tuesday). With the net short decreased by more than 35% the market seems to be more balanced and this rebalancing probably continued until the end of the week (we will know next Thursday the fresh data).

The hot weather coming to the Midwest offset the bearish reports from USDA last week. The Crop progress report that despite earlier concerns farmers managed to speed up corn planting and the warm weather is helped to develop the crop although there is a delay compared to last year. However the continuation of hot and dry weather (even exceeding 90-100 °F , 38°C) forecasted for this week could decrease soil moisture too much and this can change the situation for corn and soybean. The USDA in WASDE report Friday was rather bearish raising estimates of world corn and soybean stocks but the US corn stocks were left unchanged. Also CASDE suggested that China may see the smallest crop from 2013.

Technically corn broke out from the triangle which was forming for 2 month and holding strong despite a pullback (bearish shooting star) on Thursday. It seems that the uptrend line from last September is the next main resistance as the market could not close above it despite testing twice during the week.

Sugar

The sugar market was consolidating and managed to close above 14 cents. Monday traders will be watching cane harvest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association. Analysts expect a 9% drop in the key Brazil Centre South region and also the amount of sugar contained in cane is supposed to drop due to heavy rains. This will add support to the sugar but still plenty of bearish factors weigh.

The Indian sugar lobby is trying to persuade the government to increase import duty on Sugar to 60% from 40% due to the falling prices as imports at 40% duty are still viable. Do you remember few weeks ago the Indians reduced import duty to zero for 500k tones due to domestic sugar shortage, quite a change... Domestic Sugar production is estimated to rise app. 20% this marketing year. Also China introduced duty on sugar imports last month. According to the CASDE report the Chinese sugar imports may fall as much as 300k tonnes. Moreover the EU is planning to boost its sugar export to gain market share after years of isolation from international markets. Moreover European sugar production is expected to rise by 13% this year.

Technically despite a short term support and possible increase in prises we expect Sugar prices to fall further toward the Head and Shoulders price target. However first a correction toward 15 maybe even 16 cents is possible. The question is only how much the prices will rise before they fall again.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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June 9, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening highe but correcting

Risk on or Risk off now?

ECB sees higher grow, lower inflation (2017-19), risks balanced

No further rate cuts but also no change in policy, no taper talk at all

Trump survived Comey’s testimony as nothing was revealed

North Korea playing with fire again

US labor market keeps shrinking

Equities

ECB’s very dovish stance to further support EZ equities (rates lower for longer)

ECB boosting peripheral assets on the back of some bubbles in the core

Especially peripheral financials to benefit

Deutsche Bank can not share information about Trump’s financial dealings/ties with Russia

Credit Suisse to say thank you 1.5k employees in London

Julius Bear hit by soccer bribery issue

EU banking to face consolidation as the weaker institutions (due to negative ECB rates)

Will be target by their stronger peers (case of Santander acquiring Banco Popular)

UK financials to suffer on elections outcome/Brexit talks

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.19% - slowly moving higher

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25% - slowly moving lower on very dovish ECB, no rush to tighten policy at all

UK yields moving higher on after election mess

DXY

Lately seen too much dovishness about FOMC what may change with Comey off the table

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo)

EURUSD

Very dovish ECB to keep pressure on EUR

But had no impact on EUR yesterday likely due to capital flows to EU assets

Mega-option expiries today to anchor-bracket (according to Reuters):

1.1100 E8.7 bln, 1.1150-60 2.64 bln, 1.1185 1 bln, 1.1200-10 1.56 bln

Also 1.1220-25 1.4 bln, 1.1250 4.07 bln, 1.1270-75 714 mln, 1.1300 1.17 bln

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1227 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

Likely to focus on 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo) ahead of 1.1062 (50% Fibo) and 1.1009/00 level (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Heavy resistance at 110.47 (200 DMA), 110.50 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Decent support from options around 110.00 area (USD 2.38 bln expiring)

GBPUSD

Upside limited on election results and Brexit talks

Brexit talks are messy but after elections will be very messy

Putting further pressure along with a massive current account deficit on GBP

In other words 1.2500 and even 1.2000 can be reached easily

Support at 1.2688 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2618 (100 DMA) and 1.2576 (200 DMA)

…but getting the soft Brexit will be GBP positive

EURGBP

0.8850 in sight

Gold

Resistance at 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Support at 1255 (61.8% Fibo) and descending trendline

Upcoming Data/Events

ECB’s Linde (1030 GMT)

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – China PPI correlated to PCE, lower number having any implications for Fed next week?

Lower PPI means reflation trade is fading away

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 9, 2017 - UK elections/Brexit - few words...

David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Theresa May…all of them screwed up big time

Who is going to clean up the mess after them?

Article 50 triggered, UK leaving EU by Mar 31, 2019

May to speak at 0900 GMT

May likely to step down as Brits do not share her vision of Brexit

Dropping the Brexit would be the best outcome for Conservatives

No Scottish referendum in sight, as Scots favoured winning over May than voting for independence

EU – weak negotiating partner risks poor outcome

Two year Brexit talks deadline in question

Not sure how EU will react

All in all – more troubles and tensions ahead

But the message is clear as it was in Dutch and French elections, people do not wish a cheap populism

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 8, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening higher

Oil was heavily hit by strong rise in US inventories and products amid OPEC efforts to cut production/supply

According to Comey’s prepared statement Trump asked him to drop an investigation of Flynn

But nothing new what would surprise markets

Markets getting ready for ECB, Comey, UK elections and Qatar/N. Korea mess

Canada to boost defence spending as US is less reliable

I like this one too as many countries used to take US defence umbrella for cheap money and are not happy with Trump now

Equities

Banco Popular rescue scheme can be use for Italian banks as well

Delphi Automotive partnering with Transdev Group in the field of shuffle service

Apple working to shorten repair times

BlackBerry out with car computer system

Goldman Sachs to increase deposit rates

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

DXY

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo) holding

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo)

EURUSD

Recouped the losses after inflation downgrade leak yesterday

As market still believes in hawkish ECB

Resistance at 1.1284, then 1.1300

Offers towards 1.1300 (option barrier), likely lots of stops above

Support at 1.1230 (10 DMA), then 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

Expiring options at 1.1200 (EUR 1.7 bln)

Tomorrow we have heavy expiries both below and above 1.1300

USDJPY

110.00 important with heavy option expiries tomorrow too

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Resistance at 110.44 (200 DMA)

GBPUSD 

Still holding well despite upcoming Brexit talks

1.2974 in focus followed by 1.3046

With stops sitting above 1.3050 and 1.3100

Support at 1.2802 (50 DMA), then 1.2768

Stops sitting below these levels

Should see a relief rally after Conservative win

But to fade later as we refocus on Brexit talks

EURGBP

0.8786 and 0.8850 may be in sight

Gold

Resistance at 1300, then at 1308

Support at 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Upcoming Data/Events

G20 meeting

ECB meeting – getting grow but where is the inflation?

Draghi being alone but inflation data from EZ, US and JP suggest ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases

QE exit likely touched a bit with no precise dates

New staff predictions for 2017-19 to be released

Overall, Draghi will have top dovish performance while bit of admitting of a small shift

Sep meeting to be critical with respect to forward guidance

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (1400 GMT)

Prepared remarks for semi-official hearing  link

'I need loyalty, I expect loyalty'

"I didn't move, speak, or change my facial expression in any way during the awkward silence that followed."

If Comey doesn’t reveal anything new at the hearing, markets should take it as a risk on and USD to benefit

Overall little impact on markets

UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

Not the UK elections count but Brexit talks

2100 GMT -  Exit polls

2200 GMT – First districts counted

02-0400 GMT – decisive amount of districts counted

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 7, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher but risk off mood prevails while safe heavens in demand ahead of ECB, UK and Comey

Asia stocks up 2%, more than the rest of the region on consumers, value search and speculation about including China to ETFs

Europe opening mixed

Mnuchin on China – US to increase exports to address imbalance, splitting economic and strategic issues

US to watch FX to stay competitive, China used significant FX reserves

Trump pressing Congress over healthcare reform

Trump pleased by actions of Arab countries but US has the large air base in Qatar, so more relaxed talk will follow

US job openings skyrocketing, skilled workers in shortage

ECB bought a record amount of German bonds at negative yield last month (part of QE)

The step shows the shortage of positive yielding assets

Equities

Bayer exiting from Covestro

After Deutsche Borse-LSE deal went down, exchanges focusing on a low profile acquisitions/projects

Valeant to sell eye-surgery division to Carl Zeiss

Kaspersky taking on Microsoft

Wahed to offer robo-adviser services to Muslim investors

Banks warning on lower profits in Q2, blaming volatility

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.16%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

China’s recent huge Trys buying likely aimed at keeping the yields low, thus supporting developed markets’ economies

What is in turn beneficial for China not only via internal deleveraging and possibility to attract foreign capital to its bonds

DXY

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo) holding

EURUSD

Yesterday hitting 1.1283 before bids at 1.1284 mitigated the move

Question comes how long EUR can stay that high for?

Market keeps respecting 1.1300 despite lower US yields (bulls are definitely not happy about that)

Probably because of risk of ECB’s hawkish disappointment, very strong switch from EUR shorts to longs and huge China buying of US Trys, thus pushing the yields much lower (should be USD positive sign in longer term but correlation between USD and Trys purchases is weak)

Not expecting large moves today ahead of ECB tomorrow

But may see the cross heading lower on position squaring ahead of risk events

Resistance at 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1227 (10 DMA), then 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Quiet, waiting for tomorrow

May see some selling on spikes towards 110.00

Resistance at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo) with stops from 109.20, more below 109.00

Support at 108.12

Expiring options around 110.00 (USD 1.4 bln)

Gold

Gold reaching 2017 highs on low US yields, weak USD and risk off move ahead of events

Question is whether breaking the downtrend line is still a bullish confirmation

Resistance at 1300, then at 1307

Support at 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Correlation with EURUSD is strong, so the 1300 level is also crucial for EURUSD while testing 1.1300

As gold may help EURUSD higher towards 1.1600 after clearly breaking 1300 line

If the 1300 is really strong enough to resist, we may have a look back at 1.1000 in EURUSD

But stay alert as risk events unfold

Upcoming Data/Events

G20 meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases

June 8 - Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (1400 GMT)

Unlikely, he would accuse Trump of interfering the investigation but will make him to suffer

Trump likely under investigation but no stopping of Flynn case request from Trump

If Comey doesn’t reveal anything new, markets should take it as a risk on and USD to benefit

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

Not the UK elections count but Brexit talks

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 7, 2017 - Trade idea - Long corn on possible short liquidation

It seems that hedge funds are loosing nerves and started to close their shorts. This would come at one point in the July contract anyway as they would need to roll over positions before the notice date  30th June. The open interest in July is still more than double compared to September or December.

This trading activity was obviusly reflected in the price action yesterday when corn broke out from the triangle and closed above the May high. We can play this with a stop limit buy entry on the july contract at 380/380.2 with a stop loss at 374 and the first take profit 392 (1-2 week) . For the second profit taking we will use trailing stop after the first target is hit but we close it before the close latest 29th June.

From risk management perspective position sizing is crucial. Make sure you don't risk more than 2% of your account but if possible keep your risk [(Entry-Stop)xContract size] even lower around 1%. If your account is too small to play with futures, go for CFDs instead but spreads are usually wider there so take this into consideration. 

Let me know if you have any question regarding this trade as you may find few things tricky if you didn't trade futures yet. Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016.

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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June 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red on risk off as plenty of things going on this week

Europe opening lower

US election scandal going more public with DoJ accusing contractor about leaking top-secret documents

PIMCO neutral on Italy after offloading Italian bonds

Italy not leaving EZ but probability of things going wrong is high

UK readying for elections on Thursday amid security issues

China suggesting qualified firms to issue Panda bonds (denominated in CNY, issued by non-China issuer but sold in China)

China looking at expanding futures trading to foreigners

Equities

Lufthansa seeing higher traffic from US and Asia

Knock, knock…Siri from Apple coming to you home via HomePod speaker

GM-Greenlight Capital stock battle keeps going

Blackstone likes Scandinavia and wants to buy Finnish real estate Sponda (USD 2 bln)

GTCR and Carlyle working on buying Albany Molecular Research

Apple and Amazon to join Foxconn to buy chip business from Toshiba

In general, Europe and Japan still look attractive (valuation & flow)

Insurers like Swiss Life, followed by banks can benefit from hiking cycle

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

DXY

Higher liquidity support the increase in FX reserves

Rising USD liquidity and excess of USD funding well supporting move to yielding assets despite Fed gradual tightening

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

US yields not supporting USD

Market keeps respecting 1.1300

But bids weakening towards 1.1284

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Below 110.00 and 200 DMA (if we close below, the 108.12 is next)

Support 109.50-60 range (76.4% Fibo)

USD 1.3 bln options sitting between 108.90-109.00

In general, Japanese corporates find the range of 108.00-110.00 as a budget rate zone

What may add additional strength to JPY

Upcoming Data/Events

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 8 - Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 5, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening higher

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Bahrain cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar over support of Iran (Islamic Brotherhood and Hamas)

Pushing oil more than 1% higher

All of that coming after Trump’s visit and security threats (banning travellers or notebooks on the planes)

Russia sees oil down to USD 40

UK – attacks and risk of no majority government increasing

It may weight on GBP as UK heads towards weaker government mandate

ECB’s Visco – Italy down most in 10 years

High debt because of low growth but still the average Italian household is wealthier the German one

Fed on track for June hike after weaker Friday’s NFPs but further hikes in question

Unless we see a pick up in inflation and Trump coming with positive fiscal news

Trump to come up with Dodd Frank revamp on Tuesday

But the reality is he doesn’t have enough votes in Congress to push it through

Equities

Investindustrial and Alibaba likely to submit a join bid for The Body Shop from L’Oreal

Blackstone selling Logicor to China Investment Corp (EUR 12.25 bln)

KKR raised USD 9.3 bln in new Asia buyout fund

Exxon misleadig about climate change impact of its business

Pfizer to hike prices of some drugs in US by 20%

Goldman Sachs eying to trade Saudis stocks

Home Capital to face regulators on June 26

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%% (2.16% critical level, on Friday closed below 200 DMA)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.27%

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1284, 1.1300 (big level), 1.1355/65and 1.14/15/1600 range

Should see lots of hesitation ahead of 1.1300

Support at 1.1213 (10 DMA), 1.1200 and 1.1179 (23.6% Fibo)

New trading range 1.1000-1.1500 ?

Morgan Stanley switching from end year 0.97 level for EURUSD to 1.1800

On strong data, political stability, valuations and equity market inflows

A very nice switch…

USDJPY

US yields taking the cross lower

Support at 200 DMA at 110.34, 110.10 (Ichimoku) and 109.60 (76.4% Fibo)

Bids sitting ahead of 110.00, with stops below

Resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo), heavy level

New trading range 108.00-112.00 ?

GBPJPY - With GBP under pressure and strong JPY double whammy  possible here... looking for lower levels

AUDJPY - Are bears controlling the market?

Weekly Commodity: Oil and Sugar under pressure, Grains in a vacuum Link 

Upcoming Data/Events

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 8 - Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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