June 30, 2017 - Market Update (Markets getting ahead of themselves, US Q1 GDP revised up, S&P - Fed to start taper in Sep, Bunds-Trys spread at 183 bps, Raiffeisen Bank having difficulties with IPO, Small techs smashed on low liquidity)

Short recap Asian down on risk off flows from EU/US Europe opening mixed This week we witness lots of end of month, quarter and half a year flows/positions squaring Market is ahead of itself based on reactions, valuations, low vols, complacency China manufacturing up on good production/new orders US Q1 GDP revised up on consumer spending Well, never underestimate...

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June 28, 2017 - Market Update (Draghi's reflation & Yellen's “no new financial crisis in our lifetime” words, Cyber attacks - a new era to come? Bonds, equities down - a new risk off combination? JPY a perfect summer carry trade)

Short recap Asia down inspired by US session after another delay of healthcare bill vote Europe opening lower World coping with another cyber attack – a new era to come? Draghi replaced deflationary forces by reflationary ones and pushed EUR higher Sounds like woo-doo to me when we talk about “forces”… But overall his speech was in line with dovish policy. More...

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June 27, 2017 - Market Update (US 30-yr Trys yield flatening further, EURUSD stuck within 1.11-1.1300 range, Gold flash crash but long specs reduced while keeping the bullish bias on political uncertainity, Mkango to lauch rare-earth production in Malawi, Alibaba's Best to do delivery services, Alphabet + Avis, Apple + Herzt)

Short recap Asia up on expectations of Yellen confirming later today one more hike this year Europe opening lower Trump’s small victory (finally something) as Supreme Court made some parts of travel ban applicable Trump-Modi (India) meeting was full of socializing China-Canada agreed not to perform cyber attacks on private businesses to steal trade/confidential...

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June 26, 2017 - Market Update (Low yields to pressure US banks, Italian tax payers taking EUR 17 bln bill, FX options - implied vols making lows, VIX at 10, Fed to keep hiking, EUR longs trimmed)

Short recap Asia up Europe opening higher Trump ok to cooperate with Senate on healthcare bill Mester/Williams to keep hiking Goldman Sachs sees 25% probability of a recession in US over the next 2 years BIS was out with very positive annual report saying global growth to reach long-term average levels Sees high risk of still growing debt level due to low rate...

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June 23, 2017 - Market Update (Tough on Qatar, Soros: UK & EU may remarry, Morgan Stanley moving to Frankfurt/Dublin, Biotech on fire, FX option ruling EURUSD, USDJPY, Bonds on summer vacation)

Short recap Asia flat Europe opening lower Tough conditions for Qatar to comply within 10 days Will spur the risk off Carlyle Group – Fed to keep hiking, no problem from higher rates Soros on "Brexit In Reverse" - if all goes well UK & EU may remarry even before divorce  link North Korea firing again Equities Morgan Stanley to move EU HQ and broker-dealer operations...

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June 22, 2017 - Market Update (Harley Davidson buying Ducati, PIMCO on Chinese bonds, Frankurt to top London, Brexit laws blocked by Scots and Lords?, New US healhcare bill coming)

Short recap Asia higher as oil found some ground Europe mixed German FinMin out with Frankfurt a good alternative to London As ECB and banking oversight is there Luring European Banking Authority there as well Likely to cut taxes PBOC not planning to shrink the balance sheet as Fed does Macron – stronger integration of EZ to come (via common budget) Brexit...

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June 21, 2017 - Market Update (China A-shares in MSCI, Oil dropping, Energy stocks on negative but getting closer to attractive, EUR down on risk off this time, Geopolitical risks ongoing, Queen's speech)

Short recap Asia – risk off with miners, energy and banks in red China shares slightly higher as MSCI decision was largely priced in Europe opening lower Oil dropping like a stone on rising Libya and US rig production, while OPEC not able to cut more And rebalance the market, officially entering the bearish territory Japan facing declining domestic demand...

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June 20, 2017 - Market Update (USD getting technical support, extreme bearish sentiment turning, US yields rising, US House to finish tax reform in 2017, US stocks getting back to Trump trade on better financial liquidity)

Short recap Asia green Europe opening higher US House looking to complete the tax reform in 2017 as the pressure is mounting Brexit – EU stance is clear, the exit settlement, final bill and rights of EU citizens come first then the rest as future trade deal…etc. PBOC pushing for more open financial sector in order to support the healthy developments Equities Markets...

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June 20, 2017 – Weekly Commodity (crude below $45, but follow the US/Russia tension)

Commodities didn’t have a good week. The Bloomberg Commodity index dropped to one year lows and Monday the negative momentum doesn’t seem to fade. The best performers were the grains and the worst performers were the soft commodities, but there were significant losses in the energy and metal markets too. Oil Drillers added active oil rigs for the 22nd consecutive...

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June 19, 2017 - Market Update (Macron win a huge potential for France, Fed speakers, US groceries shaking up, extreme long specs in EUR - a fall to come?)

Short recap Asia up Europe opening higher China-Iran to conduct join naval practice in the Gulf Iran firing over Syria Trump doesn’t like Cuban salsa Macron doesn’t need a coalition partner for important economic reforms France has a huge potential if he delivers PBOC made a huge CNY 110 bln OMO liquidity injection Stating the declining liquidity after banks...

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June 16, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap Asia flat Europe opening higher BoJ no change, upgrading consumption, domestic and global growth To keep support as inflation is far from 2% Greece getting EUR 8.5 bln loan What about central banks raising the inflation targets to 3-4% range instead of 2% one? Would it create the psychological pressure on households and corporates to spend/invest...

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June 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap Asia lower Europe opening lower FOMC – more hawkish than expected Inflation expectations adjusted but Yellen sees a good ground for prices to keep rising Likely start to taper in Sep, another rate hike in Dec Some may ask why Fed doesn’t want inflation to overshoot Trump under investigation for obstruction of justice Looks like they are still...

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