Nov 9, 2017 - Market Update (Brexit saga continues - EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to come up with something, GE signing deals (USD 3.5 bln) in China Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales, 10-yr Trys yield key levels 2.27% & 2.50% to show DXY direction, EURUSD cluelessly waiting for US yields and stocks, Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue)

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

US tax reform in place likely in 2019 on respecting proper budget rules

TPP – 11 countries at the table and discussing

UAE investigating financial transactions/assets of 19 Saudis at its banks

Brexit saga – EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to bring the bill otherwise not able to prepare for Dec summit

US & SoKo Navy to launch drills near Korean peninsula

Equities

General Electric signed 3 deals in China (USD 3.5 bln)

Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales

The Banco Santander laying off 2000 employees as part of Banco Popular take over

Tencent buying 12% of Snap

Earnings

Walt Disney – theme park revenues to help

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33% vs 2.31% yesterday

Key levels 2.27% and 2.50% for further DXY direction

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33% vs 0.33% yesterday

EURUSD

Volatility is extremely low, only central banks drive the market

Market not sure which way to go

Currently near fair value according to Barclays

USD needs to speed up otherwise we are again back to nowhere

Thus US yields the key, eventually stocks

Expiring options of note with strike 1.1600 (EUR 1.7 bln), much more between 1.1650-1.1700

Stops sitting below 1.1550

Bids sitting above 1.1500

Resistance at 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA), 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Support at 1.1590 (55 HMA), 1.1570/50, 1.1500, 1.1490 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Higher US yields and stocks helped

Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue

Resistance at 113.78 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Data/events

Busy day with ECB speakers but Draghi firmly laid down dovish view few two weeks ago...

Any surprise today? As number of opponents is growing...

ECB’s Noy (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1345 GMT)

ECB’s Villeroy (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1800 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1820 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 8, 2017 - Market Update (EURUSD - H&S almost done, US yields not supporting further USD strength - a correction coming?, Oil - China demand lower on pollution cuts, Gold stuck in 1263-1282 range, ECB Governing Council meeting - watch the comments as more hawks on the Board, Apple - EU asked for more details about tax structure, Bitcoin an asset class?)

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening lower

Trump in China to ask for China cutting financial ties with NoKo

US-Chinese companies signed USD 9 bln deals

USD impacted by headwinds/slowdown related to tax reform (implementation in 2019)

As the tax cuts will spike the budget deficit and will have only temporary effect on the economy (according to Fitch)

Brexit - EU preparing tough transition terms for UK (duration, scope and obligations)

According to CME Bitcoin is a new asset class, not crypto currency

ECB caught by bad loans in Italian banks

More leaning towards hawkish side what may support EUR

Equities

Apple – EU asked for details about tax structure

Monte dei Paschi in profit after some one off items (Q3)

Qualcomm-Broadcom merger under Chinese scrutiny

Valeant profits up

Funo (BoJ) – Japan stock prices not overheating, reflect global investments and corporate earnings

Nikkei 225 close to level last seen in 1992 on relatively low valuations, profit growth and weak JPY

Are US stocks too high?

As mentioned few days ago, the sentiment index (bulls/bears ratio) is close to 1987 highs what may be seen as bears completely giving up. Would feel like there are no more bears left to be converted to bulls and push the market higher. What’s next?

Yes, the valuations (S&P 500 with 19x forward PE) are high but we need a trigger. Is it going to be a weakness in US economy or substantial increase in rates? We believe that missing higher yielding alternatives than dividends are behind all low volatility and investors not caring. Of course US companies do well from earnings and revenue perspective but we truly lack an alternative. Even thought Fed is on a hike path, the bond yield remains flat, thus not attractive enough to trigger a cyclical rotation of capital.

Techs (lately Apple) do support the rally heading towards Christmas. A small correction or hesitation may come on the back of Trump tax reform hurdles. US macro is good, EBITDA at higher than in 2007, revenues growing almost 11% y/y as weaker USD gave a hand.

S&P 500 - we see a divergence on a daily chart, moving higher in a narrow channel and any decisive break up/down can start the correction.

Volatility is at extreme lows again prompting a China story from Aug 2015 to our minds. If you feel so, check this out…

 Warren Buffett’s favorite market metric suggests investors are ‘playing with fire’  link

 …and you may get some chips off the table now.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.31% - very low, not lending any support to USD vs EUR, JPY

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

Periphery saw rally yesterday with Bunds almost unchanged

IT/PT to Bunds spread keeps declining

EURUSD

USD on negative, not helped by low US rates

As the yields remain low, USD need positive news from data or tax reform effort

Otherwise the recent USD rally is due for correction

H&S formation almost complete, Bear sitting above 1.1600 level

Resistance at 1.1595 (55 HMA), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1623 (10 DMA), 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Support at 1.1550, 1.1500, 1.1490 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Heavy activity expected above 114.00

As there are bids from lows and above 114.00

Nikkei 225 to test 23 000 level

Goldman Sachs looking to invest in Japan

Resistance at 114.40/50

Support at 113.82 (10 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Oil

Crack on corruption and fight for power a new daily norm in Saudis

Speculative demand for front end contracts (backwardation) drives oil higher

While sellers sitting on sidelines and supply unaffected

Be aware that this speculative longs may create a misleading feeling about market tightening

Geo political risks to support oil further along with likely OPEC cuts extension

Overnight corrected on lower China imports as country is reducing production due to pollution over winter months

EVs can create a plateau in 2030

Gold

Stuck between 1263 (61.8% Fibo) and 1282 (50.0% Fibo)

Sitting above 1277 (100 DMA) with further level of note 1300/1306

Which may be in focus once 1282 is broken and net sellers turn to buyers

Data/events

ECB Governing Council meeting

To watch any comment as more officials lean to hawkish side

Are US rates dependent on the height of the Chair? Enjoy...  link

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 2, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC a non event, Powell in and Tax bill out, BoE hiking after 10 years & taking a long break after..., EURUSD a shadow of USDCNH, IMF not ok with selling volatility products, Apple a big thing after market, Barclays fed up with Brexit and taking actions, Deutsche Bank seeking a second building in Frankfurt)

Short recap

Asia printing new 10-yr high as on optimism from Fed

Europe opening lower

FOMC – no changes, non event

Just reconfirmed all with economic activity to solid from moderate

Dec hike a done deal

IMF warns volatility products loom as next big market shock  link

Selling volatility complex products can be the trigger if volatility suddenly increases

Equities

Barclays is fed up with how UK is handling Brexit

And implementing their own plan

Deutsche Bank to move more operations to Frankfurt

Herbalife off the Ackman’s short bet who turned to options instead

Signa Holding (owner of Karstadt) eying Kaufhof (owned by Hudson Bay) for USD 3.5 bln

Thanksgiving travels to help airliners

Novo Nordisk warning of US legislation (Trump’s anti industry rhetoric)

Earnings

Apple – should learn more about Christmas iPhone sales and iPhone X orders

Asia is impressed by iPhone X but are they going to actually buy/afford it?

Others reporting: Alibaba, Starbucks, AIG, DowDuPont, Cigna, BCE, Bombardier

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% below 2.40% as attempts to get above faded

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

EZ yield spreads contracting, namely IT to GE, ES to GE going to year end

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1640 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1670 (200 WMA), 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1695 (100 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1.1630 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1500

 Source: Saxo Bank

Is USDCNH telling Us something ? EURUSD bulls need to move above 1.1660 in order the daily H&S to be under pressure…

GBPUSD

BoE hiking after 10 years? One off to 0.50% from current 0.25%

And likely taking a long break after…

Hard to spot any levels of choice and Brexit mess is still ongoing

Support at 1.3222 (50 DMA), 1.3204 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 1.3336

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Got some support from Powell nomination

No clear reaction to FOMC’s no change, just a small advance as rate don’t go up immediately

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), descending trendline

Support at 1275 (10/100 DMA), 1263 (low & 61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Powell (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1620 GMT)

Republicans unveiling tax reform bill (1515 GMT)

Rumours on repatriation tax rate:

5% on non-cash

12% on cash

But no offsetting revenue yet

Possibility of a temporary nature of the tax cuts

Trump meeting House GOP leaders (1745 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair (1900 GMT)

Powell likely taking the Chair and Taylor his Deputy?

That would be a true shift after Yellen…

Powell good for stocks as we can see the continuity

But not much for USD

Fed’s Bostic (2215 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs

Payrolls +310k exp. vs -33k prior

Unemployment rate 4.2% exp. vs 4.2% prior

Hourly earnings 0.2% exp. vs 0.5% prior

Fed’s Kashkari (1615 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2015 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 26, 2017 - Market Update (ECB day today but should they do anything?, Turkish CB in the spotlight too, EURUSD range 1.1660-1.1860/1.1900+, Airbus-Bombardier deal a China story?, Brazil yields up on elections risk, VIX to loo for too long - recall the Aug 2015 China blow...)

Short recap

Asia flat

Europe opening flat

China going for USD denominated bonds again (first issue from 2004)

ECB day today - lots of uncertainties around QE cut back (low inflation, strong EUR vs growing economy)

Still not clear whether ECB should do it today or not

A Turkish Central Bank announcement important today

As there are speculations about Germany (EU) to cut funding for Turkey

Equities

GaxoSmithKline likely to boost their consumer health business via acquisitions

Airbus deal with Bombardier might have had more to do

With technology and production shift to China than with Boeing

As some Chinese investors were looking at Bombardier as well

Earnings

Microsoft – expecting higher revenue on cloud business

Alphabet – expecting higher revenue on mobile, YouTube, Play Store and cloud

Intel – to benefit from stable PC market and very good growth from data centers

Amazon.com – retail and cloud should help while new markets and acquisitions weight

Ford – question is how the weak sales in Europe and Chine effect the results

Planning to cut USD 14 bln and focus more trucks and electric/hybrid cars

Newmont Mining – market is looking at higher revenue on more effective production of gold

Teck Resources – expecting a nice surprise on higher prices of coal, zinc and cooper

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.43%, above technical 2.40% level

10-yr Bund yield at 0.48%

Brazil – the yields highlight upcoming volatility before next year’s presidential elections

Stocks at records highs, BRL is stable but investors are getting nervous whether new president

Will keep up with reform process

VIX

What a nice ride for all of those who bet on falling risk

But…things may change, be aware of that

As the Chinese blow out from Aug 2015 shows

What about VIX spiking again 96% ?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

Easy hawkish surprise but difficult to sell the market dovish view

Draghi to have a hard time to talk down EUR based on ongoing price action despite higher US yields

Saw some short covering going to ECB & because of new question marks appeared around US tax reform

Markets expect dovish taper

See range of 1.1660-1.1860/1.1900+

Resistance at 1.1850 (50 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1.1793 (10 DMA), 1.1783 (200 HMA), 1.1750/60, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Selling interest above 114.00

Huge expiring options with strikes 113.50-80 and 114.50/115.00

Bids a 113.50, more towards 113.00 with stops below

Support at 112.99 (10 DMA)

Trading around descending trendline after getting close to recent high at 114.50 from July

Gold

Taylor or Powell ? Taylor can make a hit on gold

As he favours quicker rate hikes and return back to normal

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1285 (10 DMA)

Support at 1275 (100 DMA)

Data/events

ECB (1145 & 1230 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1430 GMT)

Fri

ECB’s Praet (0715 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 20, 2017 - Market Update (US Senate moving on budget, US jobless claims hitting multidecade low - positive on spending/GDP/inflation/USD, Catalonian bank run, S&P 500 tested the support around 2544/40, Earnings to set the tone for today's trading, Schlumberger results important for correction in energy stocks)

Short recap

Asia up after some hesitation at the beginning

Europe opening higher

US Senate moving on 2018 budget, next step towards tax reform

US jobless claims hitting multidecade low what means more people working, more money for spending

As consumption is 60% of US GDP, we can see in the future higher GDP growth pressuring up inflation

Merkel positive on Brexit progress but not at the stage to move to trade talks

Catalonian separatists supporting bank run what may send shockwaves across equity markets in Europe

BoJ’s Kuroda – to continue with powerful QE

Equities

Stocks had a test day yesterday on Catalan risk, speculations about high valuations and weaker earnings

Bias still negative today – a correction before weekend coming? Well, depends on earnings now…

S&P 500 tested the support (now around 2544/40) with resistance between 2573/75

But US Senate move with 2018 budget to reflect positive in today’s session

Apple hit by weak demand for iPhone 8

Greek banks Piraeus, National and Alpha looking to sell EUR 5.5 bln of bad loans

Nestle beefing up restructuring cost

Earnings

Weak in Europe – a strong EUR an issue or what?

Not stellar in US with slow revenue growth – are investors going to punish companies with sell off?

On the other hand low bond vs dividend yields still supportive for equities

Today: Daimler (disappointed), GE, Schlumberger, P&G, Honeywell

Energy market will focus on Schlumberger as any disappointment in outlook

Can translate into energy stocks correction that is already sitting on support

Little bit of perspective of Black Friday sell off in Oct 1987:

Few words as well…  link

  

…and back to today’s reality:

If all market participants are buying, there is no bear that can get converted to bull

If it is the case, there are no other buyers left…

  

But still some thoughts from Warren Buffett – video (49 min)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39%

EURUSD - ready to correct big time and trading below parity? Next week's ECB holds the key as the 2yr Trys-Bunds spread is at extreme  link

  

DXY

200 WMA at 93.05 critical

EURUSD

Expiring options at 1.1800 (EUR 1.5 bln), then 1.850-55 (EUR 1.4 bln)

Likely to range 1.1800/50 today unless we get a surprise…

Resistance at 1.1847 (50 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1880, 1.1910

Support at 1.1800/10 (200 HMA), 1.1787 (Ichimoku), 1.1750, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Supported by higher yields on US budget news

Resistance at 113.43 with stops sitting above 113.50

To test 114.00, then 114.50 but stops above both levels

Exporters can be seen above 113.50

Support at 112.48 (10 DMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1289 (10 DMA)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1276 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank 

Data/events

China National Congress (Fri/Sat)

EU Summit (Fri/Sat)

Czech parliamentary elections (Fri/Sat)

BoJ’s Kuroda (0635 GMT)

Fed’s Mester (1800 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (2330 GMT)

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom 

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Oct 16, 2017 - Market Update (May urgently in Brussels ahead of EU Summit, Austrian elections outcome a non event as no exit EU talk, ECB's QE limit at 2.5 trln?, Aramco's private shares sale instead of IPO, Volkswagen short of cobalt supplies, Tech to benefit from corporate spending but position adjustments imminent, USDJPY weekly - not great for bulls but DXY holding above lows may give a hand)

Short recap

Asia up
Europe opening higher

Governor of PBOC Zhou bullish on Chinese economy ahead of Congress

Austria turning populist to far right but no exit EU talk

To challenge Macron’s view of more Europe, tough on immigration…etc.

Catalonia ready for talks with Spain but no mentioning of declaration of independence

Iraqi military in control of Kurdish oil fields

ECB’s QE limited at EUR 2.5 trln ?  link

Fed’s Yellen monitoring inflation, economy strong, gradual hikes appropriate

Fed’s Rosengren ok with Dec hike and 3-4 more hikes next year

BoJ’s Kuroda – markets overlooking the geopolitical risks

May taking it seriously and making unannounced trip to Brussels to meet with Barnier and Juncker today  ahead of EU Summit Oct 19-20  link

Equities

Atlantia increasing offer for Abertis to EUR 17.8 bln to stretch muscles over ACS’s offer

SWIFT holding an annual meeting with focus on cyber security

Aramco may go for a private share sale instead of IPO

With sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors taking advantage

Volkswagen having issues to secure stable cobalt supply in a long run

What is another sign of strong competition in electric vehicles field

Glencore, China Molybdenum, Vale are largest producers of cobalt

Earnings

Tech companies to benefit from higher corporate spending

But are a bit overstretched after rally from Sep

May see some position adjusting ahead of next week releases

Mon – Netflix

Tue – MS, GS, IBM, J&J

Wed – American Express, Atlas Copco, eBay, P&G

Thu – Unilever, SAP

Fri – GE, Daimler

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.29%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.40%

COT report as of last Tue

Specs decreased bearish USD positions

EUR longs at 98k vs 91k previous week

JPY shorts at 101k vs 85k previous week

GBP longs at 15k vs 20k previous week

EURUSD

Dovish Draghi, hawkish Yellen, Merkel’s party loss pushed cross lower at the open

Traders noted stops below 1.1790 with bids sitting around 1.1755/65

Resistance at 1.1845 (50 DMA)1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1880 (break can open short term higher), 1.1910

Support at 1.1783 (200 HMA), 1.1780 (10 DMA), 1.1750, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Keeps heavy after US CPI miss on Fri

112.00 kept by expiring options

Bids sitting at 111.50 while offers above 112.10

Resistance at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 111.83 (200 WMA), 112.15 (50 WMA)

Support at 111.78 (200 DMA)

Weekly chart - not great from bulls perspective

but DXY is telling a different story as long as last week low holds

Data/events

EU Foreign Affairs Council

UK’s May, Davis meeting EU’s Juncker, Barnier

ECB’s Angeloni (1300 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1800 GMT)

Tue

ECB’s Constancio (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (0930 MT)

Fed’s Harker (1700 GMT)

Wed

ECB’s Draghi (0810 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Duddley (1200 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1415 GMT)

Fed’s Hirtle

Fed’s Fischer

Thu

Fed’s George (1330 GMT)

Fri

BoJ’s Kuroda (0635 GMT)

Fed’s Mester (1800 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (2330 GMT)

Oct 18-20  – China National Congress

Oct 19-20 – EU Summit (Brexit to be heavily debated)

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 12, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC Minutes - debated inflation, JPMorgan & Citigroup reporting, Goldman Sachs back to investment banking?, EURUSD above 1.1830, heading to 1.2000 but..., CZK on the horse, Gold - which way now?, Homework time for Catalonia until Monday)

Short recap

Asia up reaching 10 yr high

Europe opening flat to lower

Spain gave until Monday Catalonia to drop independence

Otherwise will take over all powers over the autonomy region

Oil inventories rising even though OPEC is cutting production

FOMC Minutes – inflation debate intensified

Some patience to assess inflation path warranted

But others are looking at Dec hike

Doves and Hawks at Fed  chart

Repatriation tax rate at 10% according to Trump

Equities

A bit of reminder of .com area – A Biotech Company Changed Its Name to ‘Riot Blockchain’ and Its Stock Is Surging  link

Japanese equities may still look interesting but don’t forget that BoJ is still active in the market

Better days for banks ahead?  link

May get support from rising rates that will translate to higher profit margins

Citron (short seller) – looking to publish more of their research on Shopify

JPMorgan – should report a bit better results, focus on trading and loan business

Citigroup – expecting slight disappointment earnings

BlackRock enjoying the bull run as index investors take the AUM to USD 6 trln

Goldman Sachs looking to return to investment banking as it is looking for new deals

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46%

Wealth manager warns on bond markets creating the 'biggest financial crisis of our lifetime'  link

Are bonds ready for a quick reversal as central banks look to remove QE?

Bond markets are at certain point illiquid

Guessing that ECB knows this one better as they have sometimes troubles to find suitable available bonds to buy

EURUSD

Catalonia is over for now, markets turning attention back to EZ macro

Back above 1.1830, opening the door for 1.2000

Resistance at 1.1910

Support at 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1845 (100 DMA)

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.61 (10 DMA), 112.70 (Ichimoku turning line)

Support at 111.89 (200 DMA), 111.85 (23.6% Fibo)

EURCZK

CZK on the rising wave, now below 26.00

Resistance at 25.88 (10 DMA), 25.97

Support at 25.47

Bear in mind that it is still too early read the charts after CNB 27.00 floor adventure

But at least weekly chart can give us some clues where we are heading to

CNB sitting on tons of foreign reserves and now losing money

Some politicians calling for joining EUR

General elections taking place on Oct 20-21

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1295/96 (highs), 1297 (50 DMA), 1299 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank 

Data/events

ECB’s Draghi (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1430 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1430 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2000 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (2010 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Rosengren (1230 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1415 GMT)

Fed’s Evans (1425 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1530 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1700 GMT)

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 9, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet trading today unless..., Honeywell spinning off, Deutsche Borse working hard on moving euro clearing out of UK, JPM/Citi expecting lower trading revenues, BofA to benefit from cost cutting and expanding in retail, USDJPY - Peaking and may loose momentum as per daily chart/MACD)

Short recap

China in green after one week off

Europe in red

US/CA/JP markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving/Health-Sports day

US banks/Trys closed but stocks open

NFPs good on earnings, the rest is a question of interpretation (hurricanes, steady jobs growth…etc.)

But USD not taking any clues

Should have quiet trading unless Catalonia declares independence

Or Trump announces something out of ordinary on Iran nuclear deal

EU having two issues at political level – Catalonian independence and how to handle it

And the rise of populism in Italy ahead of next year’s elections

Still Brexit ongoing while German economy at full speed with French numbers getting better as well

Brexit – no deal planning underway on UK side

Deutsche Borse working hard on moving euro clearing out of UK

Equities

Honeywell planning spin offs to streamline the business

Tesla benefiting from Puerto Rico need to restore power

Airbus living turbulent times (investigation of corruption)

Boeing injected GBP 100 into Monarch Airlines

Automation companies to benefit another winner of Trump’s tax plan

Activist investors looking to unlock value of Canadian real estate market

Earnings season is back

Sentiment is strong, valuations highs

Thus companies must deliver to justify valuations

Reporting this week: BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan, Citigroup, BofA, Wells Fargo

JPM, Citi expecting lower trading revenues, BofA to benefit from cost cutting and expanding in retail

Wells Fargo – sales scandal/reputation issues still up in the air

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% - finished the week lower on NFPs

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46%

COT report (as of Tue last week)

EUR longs at 91k vs 88k previous week

JPY shorts at 85k vs 71k previous week

GBP longs at 20k vs 5k previous week

EURUSD

EZ growth ok, CH private investors buying more assets abroad without hedging, some legacy shorts to be still closed out thus dips an opportunity to establish longs for 1.2500 (Source: Morgan Stanley)

Resistance at 1.1750 (200 HMA), 1.1755 (10 DMA), 1.1780

Support at 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1714, 1.1699 (200 WMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Peaking and may loose momentum as per daily chart/MACD

Resistance at 113.00, 113.25 followed by 113.57

Support at 112.62 (10 DMA), 111.89 (200 DMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Managed to jump off the lows around 1263

On potential new NoKo nuclear test and lower USD

Resistance at 1296 (50 DMA), 1299 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1279 (10 DMA), 1273 (100 DMA), strong at 1268 (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

US/CA/JP markets closed

Oct 9-15 – IMF/WB meeting

Eurogroup meeting

ECB’s Mersch (0745 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1200 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (2030 GMT)

Tue

Fed’s Kashkari (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT)

Wed

Fed’s Evans (0715 GMT)

FOMC Minutes

Fed’s Potter

Fed’s Bostic

Fed’s Williams (1440 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1450 GMT)

Thu

ECB’s Draghi (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1030 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1030 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1600 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1610 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Rosengren (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1015 GMT)

Fed’s Evans (1025 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1130 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1300 GMT)

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 6, 2017 - Market Update (Biz moving out making Catalonian politicians to think twice as Quebec is a nice example, NFPs & DXY - Good number Ok, bad number…because of hurricanes…as simple as that, EURUSD watching 1.1662 & 1.1615/05, USDJPY ready to test 113.25 & 113.37, Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation/debt)

Short recap

Asia up, inspired by US stocks printing new highs on tax reform hopes

EU opening higher

Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation and unsustainable debt

IMF still supports accommodative policy from ECB, BoJ

Italian CB asking ECB to soften bad-loan plans

ECB to put legal restrictions on ICOs

Bitcoin may fall to their jurisdiction anyway

But ICOs is a more securities area than monetary

Monday - US/CA markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving

Spain to issue decree enabling firms to move their legal bases out of Catalonia easily

Catalonian politicians should think twice about independence as history of Quebec referendums shows. The QC voters scarred businesses in 1980 & 1995 so much, that  Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada and Sun Life Financial moved to Toronto. Toronto also replaced Montreal as the most populous city in Canada later on.

Equities

IBEX witnessed a correction yesterday

And Catalan leaders may soften the stance as business is moving out

E.g. biggest Catalan bank Sabadell moved HQ to Alicante with immediate effect

Boeing-JetBlue should be out with a small hybrid-electric plane in 2022

Aramco’s IPO in 2018 on track

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

DXY

NFPs likely to have a very low negative impact on USD as tax reform moves on

Good number ok, bad number…because of hurricanes…as simple as that

Resistance at 94.02 (23.6% Fibo), 94.41 (100 DMA)

Support at 93.20 (10 DMA), 92.77 (50 DMA)

EURUSD

Leverage names were selling from around 1.1700

Resistance at 1.1708 (200 WMA), 1.1714, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1762 (10 DMA), 1.1780, 1.1812 (10 DMA)

Support at 1.1662, 1.1615, critical 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1594 (100 DMA)

USDJPY

Breaking recent highs may open the door to go above 113.00

With resistance at 113.25 followed by 113.57, then 114.49

Support at 112.57 (10 DMA), 111.92 (200 DMA)

GBPUSD

Cable under pressure from May’s weak position within her party

1.3000 first level to watch, then 1.2943

On no Brexit deal risk can go to 1.26000 according to HSBC

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1273 (100 DMA), 1280 (10 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo),

Support strong at 1268 (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally), 1263 (61.8% Fibo), 1253 (200 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US NFPs – 90k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev; 2.5% y/y

Despite Americans filling less for unemployment benefits

Hurricanes impact still casting a shadow over labour market

Fed’s Bostic (0915 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1215 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1300 GMT)

Oct 9 – US/CA markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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