Dec 5, 2017 - Weekly Commodity: OPEC delivered extension now focus turning to US production & inventories

Commodities had a bad week caused primarily by correction in metals which couldn’t be compensated by slight bounce in Energy and Agriculture. The OPEC delivered extension of the production cut as the market expected, however as this was already priced in there wasn’t enough buying power to take prices to new highs. As the huge rally from the end of summer was mainly...

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Dec 5, 2017 - Market Update (Brexit and US tax bill market movers, EU to review US tax bill and its implications, S&P 500 & DAX - what's next?, Apple to start to paying back taxes to Ireland in Q1 2018 (EUR 13 bln), Toll Brothers facing lack of skilled labour - an issue for home builders across US)

Short recap Asia took a break Europe opening flat to slightly up US tax bill refining continues as the bill moves from Senate to the House before it lands on Trump’s table Many have changed the wording from tax reform bill to tax bill AMT getting challenged as many companies may loose the tax break and pay the 20% alternative minimum tax EU to assess US tax bill...

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Nov 29, 2017 - Market Update (OPEC day but will Russia, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria join? Preliminary Brexit bill EUR 50 bln, Gold attacking 1300 but..., EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, to prepare new black/grey lists, Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount, Bitcoin a threat to global economy?)

Short recap Asia in green Europe opening higher OPEC day today with not only oil but energy stocks in focus NoKo threating with new missile test again But no reaction from the markets (a sign that conflict escalation is low for the time being) Powell with dovish tilt, no change to rate path HFs having hard time to earn money from bond and FX trading And...

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Nov 28, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Oil bulls supported by Canadian supply disruption, Thursday OPEC meeting in focus

The last week was rather quiet due to Thanksgiving but we had some interesting moves in the commodity space due to unexpected events. First of all the tired oil bulls got some support from the Canadian supply disruption while the grain market was kept low due to huge ending stocks and good weather forecast from South America. We saw also a revival of the industrial metals...

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Nov 24, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet unless..., Chinese stocks steady after two day selloff, Saudis opening local stock market for small foreign funds, May in Brussels at Brexit grilling party, Ireland to veto border but government may collapse first, Flying lifts from Thyssenkrupp, USDJPY through 111.00 towards 110.00 or back to 112.50?, GBPUSD hitting the resistance at 1.3335)

Short recap Asian with wake up call from China Europe opening flat to higher FOMC and ECB Minutes left the market without any illusions Fed likely to be more dovish, ECB still on split over QE end Germany – Socialists under strong pressure to form government France – US corporates like Macron story, likely to increase investments in FR Brexit – May meeting...

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Nov 22, 2017 - Market Update (US rate curve flattening on corporate and pension fund investors interest, Hong Kong above 30 000, US not comfortable with free and open internet, USDJPY condemned to 112.00-50 range ahead of US/JP holidays, Enel going digital, RBC too big to fail since yesterday, If early elections in Germany not before end of Q1 2018)

Short recap Asian in green Europe opening higher If new elections in Germany, not before end of Q1 2018 Thus prolonging the uncertainty but EUR is indifferent, as it was the case with some other coalition talks in EU US to take down the free and open internet Giving the service providers possibility to choose what content the users will access Lacklustre...

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Nov 21, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Crude trader’s focus back on fundamentals, oversupply

After a week of increased uncertainty following the anticorruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia, the focus is re-shifting toward fundamentals again. A Tuesday sell-off was triggered by the IEA monthly report where the agency reduced its’ global demand forecast by around 100k bpd in contrary to the last OPEC Monthly report from a day earlier. The bears got some additional...

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Nov 20, 2017 - Market Update (No Jamaica in Germany, Leadership in EU on pause, Risk taking at record levels, Mugabe still in but already out, Norwegians not counting on oil/gas, EURUSD to keep hawkish tone above 1.1675-1700 zone, Gold to test medium-term resistance at 1306)

Short recap Asia in red Europe opening lower No Jamaica coalition in Germany – Merkel can still form a minority government No history of minority government or new election creating more uncertainty Merkel to meet president, German leadership in EU on pause What worked in difficult 2000s and 2010s years not working anymore Pragmatism, conservativism and stability...

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Nov 15, 2017 - Story of the Week: Comparing old and new economy...General Electric and Tesla

As there are lots of questions about what’s next in equity space let’s compare stocks from old and new economy – GE and Tesla. General Electric – a time to buy after almost 50% decline from 2016 peak and recent fall? Still on the weak side as investors digest the overhaul plans with question marks about the success Aligning dividend payout to cash flow generation To...

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Nov 15, 2017 - Market Update (Xi to visit NoKo one day, Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair?, Stocks not comfortable with no new catalyst, GE story, Airbus – a new USD 40 bln order?, Volkswagen and police/tax authorities again, Loxo partnering with Bayer, US yield curve flattening despite 2-yr yield hitting a 9-yr high, EURUSD - forget about H&S, looking at 1.1900, USDJPY to dip below 112.00)

Short recap Asia in red but BoJ active in ETF buying Europe opening lower Special envoy from China heading to NoKo on Nov 17 Central bankers talking about an end of easy money Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair? Risk bubbles rising across EMs: Military taking over in Zimbabwe, where is Mugabe? Venezuela defaulting, South Africa to be downgraded Equities Stocks...

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Nov 14, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Did the Crude bulls run too far?

After the spectacular rally since September crude bulls are taking a brake recently. The main reasons of the rally were partially old news about the extension of OPEC and Non-OPEC production cut beyond March 2018. The geopolitical tension on the Middle East added further support to the bulls and the spread between the Brent and WTI widened to over 7$. Another strong support that...

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Nov 13, 2017 - Market Update (May on the way out, Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal/no deal, Alibaba on fire with global Singles' Day sales, Uber heading to IPO with Softbank getting closer to the deal, US inflation to show direction for yields, EURUSD back to range 1.1570/1.1670, Gold - long liquidation below 1280 level?)

Short recap Asia in red as investors becoming cautious on ability of US lawmakers to work out the tax reform Europe opening higher South China Sea disputes on again Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal As May is under enormous pressure from her own political party to step down While EU made it clear that UK needs to honor its commitments (in...

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Nov 10, 2017 - Market Update (US tax reform question mark, China to open financial markets/allow investments in companies, Trump with a promise of USD 250 bln deals with China, Brexit - Norther Ireland part of EU single market?, Cameco's 10% production cut a new bullish trend in uranium?, Monsanto not linked to cancer, 10-yr Bund yields saw a significant jump, DXY to close around key levels, Brent above key 62.00, than 60.00 USD/bbl)

Short recap Asia in red Europe opening lower US tax reform – a potential delay in corporate tax rate cut to 2019 pushed stocks in US and Asian lower Trump sees current account deficit with China not acceptable, happy with deals worth of USD 250 bln But overall friendly remarks on both sides China to open financial markets and allow foreign investments in financial...

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