Friday, 22 September 2017

Sep 22, 2017 - Market Update (China downgrade on still fast credit growth, NoKo a new H-bomb test while Kim is in NY, Stronger EUR weighting on DAX, Apple under pressure - a new target at 142?, May's perfect time of Brexit speech at 1900 GMT, Germany voting on Sunday, Gold at 1295 - which way?)

Short recap Asia in red on NoKo and S&P downgrade of China (outlook stable) and Hong Kong (outlook negative). S&P not comfortable with Chinese still strong credit growth Europe opening lower Speculation that NoKo will test powerful hydrogen bomb in Pacific PBOC asked Chinese banks to stop cooperating with NoKo Equities Lufthansa to absorb largest...

Thursday, 21 September 2017

Sep 21, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC - market not a strong believer of Fed talk, EURUSD sitting at strong support 1.1870/80, Gold at crossroad between 1290-1300, UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, Apple slowing, Huawei, Oppo, Samsung speeding up, EU to redo taxation of digital world)

Short recap Asia in red Europe opening higher EU-CA free trade deal in effect starting today EU to redo taxes on digital companies Goldman Sachs expect USD 1 trln tax cuts (0.4% of GDP) over 10 yrs FOMC – no change, rates 1.00-1.25% Taper starting in Oct to get cushion for next crisis Expecting 1 more hike this year, 3 hikes next year Market pricing Dec...

Friday, 15 September 2017

Sep 15, 2017 - Market Update (US inflation surprise making Dec Fed hike a 50/50 game, Weidmann like Draghi...eyeing his job?, Oil above USD 50 a stability for US shale, GBPUSD up to 1.3500, but weak USD can push it to 1.4000 despite heavy short specs, Trump trade making US small caps rally)

Short recap Asian in red on NoKo playing with fire again but market corrected quickly Europe opening mixed ECB’s Weidmann out with comments like Draghi…getting ready for his job? Aug US inflation at 1.9%, core 1.7%, higher than expected Bringing Dec Fed hike to 50/50 probability But economists predict Fed pausing… Equities Rupert Murdoch’s takeover...

Thursday, 14 September 2017

Sep 14, 2017 - Market Update (Trump maturing, ECB not in a rush to hike, DAX at crucial 12 500, Back to Trump trade?, EURUSD at support zone 1.1 870/80, Amazon.com to sell sombreros, Munich Re hit by hurricanes, Oracle in the cloud)

Short recap Asian down on weaker Chinese data Europe opening mixed Trump getting more experienced (less tweeting) And starting meeting people (like Rep/Dem leaders) to move things forward ECB to keep a steady hand on easy policy as inflation stays very low Chinese steel mills production reaching record highs Bitcoin on a weak foot after JPMorgan’s Dimon fraud...

Tuesday, 12 September 2017

Sept 12, 2017 - Market Update (Risk off on NoKo, Irma, higher bond yields, change in CNY policy, Cryptos banned but PBOC supporting blockchain, Regulation to come, Samsung cheering over Note 8, Apple's new iPhone 8 with USD 1000 price tag?, Gold prone to correct to 1300 if no risks off, Japanese stocks ok as long as USDJPY above 108.00)

Short recap Asia printing 10-yr highs Europe opening higher Jump in bond yields supporting risk on China likely to change policy in order to avoid quick appreciation of CNY New milder sanctions against NoKo approved by UN No NoKo reaction yet, markets relieved a bit Brexit repeal vote approved, a huge relief for May Some ECB officials pretty hawkish yesterday...

Friday, 8 September 2017

Sep 8, 2017 - Market Update (North Korea/Irma - unhedged over the weekend?, Dovish Draghi but no indications, 10-yr Trys yield dipping below may bring more declines, EURUSD - 1.2000 a fair value, 1.2100 to hurt sentiment and DAX, Platina to catch up Gold rally, WTI at USD 55 unsustainable, BMW taking e-cars seriously, Amazon in a need of 2nd US HQ)

Short recap Asia in red Europe opening lower ECB kept its policy unchanged Draghi stayed dovish, has not offered any clear indication on what’s next Despite strong EUR pushing inflation lower and economy doing well Ifo head warning of next EZ crisis Market keeps testing upside in EURUSD North Korea (important public holiday 9.9. may be topped by another...

Tuesday, 5 September 2017

Sep 5, 2017 - Market Update (Very quiet in the markets…, North Korea making a storm?, Cryptos hit with Bitcoin & Ethereum down, JPY not what it used to be against Gold, EURUSD ready to correct if Draghi impresses, United Technologies buying Rockwell Collins, Air Berlin keeps flying for now)

Short recap Asia in red Europe opening flat to slightly higher Very quiet in the markets… North Korea still an issue, preparing another launch before weekend (Sep 9 a holiday in NoKo) as it moves ICBM to the launch place BRICS meeting going on in China, but China not taking any actions against NoKo China the key player even if US, SoKo and JP decide to act US...

Monday, 4 September 2017

Sep 4, 2017 - Market Update (UN meeting on North Korea, Little risk in FX world warranted, EU/China economies to cool down, FiatChrysler declining and takeover offer, Merger completed, new DowDuPont is alive, Highly rated corporate bonds to benefit, Bund yields may go again to zero, EURUSD - Attempts above 1.2000 to hit the heavy resistance, USDJPY - ceiling at 110.00, Gold - eying 1375)

Short recap Asian in red on safe haven flow Europe opening lower US/CA Labor Day holiday today UN Security Council to meet on North Korea US Secretary of Defence Mattis joining Trump in his rhetoric (not a good sign) Little risk in FX world warranted Despite North Korean likely not to escalate situation further as it hit the ceiling with hydrogen bomb test...